The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Have your say on today's Aardvark Daily column

Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby Malcolm » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:01 pm

paulw wrote:I suspect that you won't see a big jump in EVs unless someone like the Chinese gov mandated that all new vehicles sold in China from Jan 01 2020 would have to be EV then you would see development. Currently in NZ the price of a new EV is around the $60 to 70 grand mark. People who buy the likes of the Toyota Corolla or Mazda 3 will not pay that price. Even the much heralded Tesla 3 will be about $70K by the time it gets here.. The only other option is to buy a second hand Jap or UK Nissan Leaf import for about $15 to 30 grand with a battery that may or may not have a good life expectancy. I don't see an EV on my horizon for at least another 5 or 6 years and then it will most likely be second hand..


Prices I saw for the Leaf and many similar models is down to about $10k as a fresh import from the UK. Apparently the advice is to get the UK import models over the Japanese ones as the language in the firmware is nearly impossible to change.
I see The Warehouse is trialing the Nissan electric van for same-day delivery for online orders in Auckland. I think it has the Leaf motor and battery in a small delivery van body.
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:35 pm

I'm expecting some very significant price drops over the next decade as well as much greater pressure from the climate-change brigade to cut back on fossil fuel consumption. The appearance of greater numbers of new (and used) EVs, combined with the tax incentives that I'm pretty sure that government will finally adopt, may make EVs cheaper (on a total cost of ownership) than old dino-juicers.
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby Kiwiiano » Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:37 pm

Some random thoughts: EVs will struggle in NZ for a while yet, Nissan NZ site makes no mention of the Leaf, Hyundai have a huge spread on the Ioniq but skirt around naming a price and Honda can't decide whether their hybrids are not being imported because there's no demand or that current owners are being encouraged to trade-in to meet the huge demand. I suspect the demand in Japan is so high they can't export them.Until Our Glorious Leaders up at Fort Fumble pull finger and encourage them and/or discourage the fleets of SUVs that will still be belching fossil carbon in 2027, we'll continue to dither on.
NZ has abundant electricity now, we just need to charge Comalco a sensible price and they'll f**k off back to Oz leaving electricity too cheap to bother metering. Nuclear is a dead dog, it is way more expensive than solar and that's without including the true costs of mining & processing plus waste disposal.
True, getting it from the Deep South to AK will have some challenges but as various new battery technologies mature we should see more solar installations. Note that domestic Oz is approaching 25% installed and before anyone protests that they have more sun there, also note that Germany is doing pretty well too & they are about the same latitude as the Auckland Islands. The southern ones....
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby Weasel » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:37 am

Kiwiiano wrote:Some random thoughts: EVs will struggle in NZ for a while yet, Nissan NZ site makes no mention of the Leaf, Hyundai have a huge spread on the Ioniq but skirt around naming a price and Honda can't decide whether their hybrids are not being imported because there's no demand or that current owners are being encouraged to trade-in to meet the huge demand. I suspect the demand in Japan is so high they can't export them.Until Our Glorious Leaders up at Fort Fumble pull finger and encourage them and/or discourage the fleets of SUVs that will still be belching fossil carbon in 2027, we'll continue to dither on.
NZ has abundant electricity now, we just need to charge Comalco a sensible price and they'll f**k off back to Oz leaving electricity too cheap to bother metering. Nuclear is a dead dog, it is way more expensive than solar and that's without including the true costs of mining & processing plus waste disposal.
True, getting it from the Deep South to AK will have some challenges but as various new battery technologies mature we should see more solar installations. Note that domestic Oz is approaching 25% installed and before anyone protests that they have more sun there, also note that Germany is doing pretty well too & they are about the same latitude as the Auckland Islands. The southern ones....


Is Lake Manapouri power still exclusive to Comalco? Getting electricity generated from Lake Manapouri to Auckland is a long way to go, kicking Comalco out might not make any real difference to the cost at your meter box. NZ is too small for Nuke, typically you build those in a pair and they poke about 1MWe out, and to be efficient they have to run at 100% non stop. But! you need enough other generation up your sleeve incase it goes offline. Germany is a lie, they still import a lot of coal, gas and nuclear generated power from their neighbours, occasionally they have a good day when conditions are perfect and they can say they ran 100% on wind or something for a few hours.

As for cars, remember NZ is a tiny rounding error of a market to global car companies, the reality is its hardly worth their effort to ship and sell products like cars there to a population of ~4 million. I wouldn't expect an electric car revolution any time soon.
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby Hiro Protagonist » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:08 am

aardvark_admin wrote:Should we be planning for this transition already and getting critical work underway in order to meet the massive surge in peak-power demands that EVs will create?

Yes.

<sarcasm>It's a Good Thing we have a forward-thinking govt who are able to make the tough decisions and invest in infrastructure before everything turns into a giant SNAFU</sarcasm>
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby paulw » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:16 am

aardvark_admin wrote:I'm expecting some very significant price drops over the next decade as well as much greater pressure from the climate-change brigade to cut back on fossil fuel consumption. The appearance of greater numbers of new (and used) EVs, combined with the tax incentives that I'm pretty sure that government will finally adopt, may make EVs cheaper (on a total cost of ownership) than old dino-juicers.

The only tax incentives that the left will suggest is to tax the crap out of ICEVs so people can't afford to run them or buy EVs for that matter.
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:00 am

Yes Paul, governments are far more inclined to use the stick than the carrot.
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby 4765656B » Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:19 pm

Well for me, this is the year of the EV. I'd already decided before I saw this article. I'd always wanted to do my own conversion, but when I started to look around, there are a reasonable number of choices now - not just the Leaf. Looking at second hand direct from Japan it adds up quite favorably.
I agree there could be infrastructure issues, but it's actually probably not as bad as everyone makes out. Yes, if everyone wants to fully charge their vehicles in 20 minutes, we're in trouble, but, if like me, in reality, you are going to be charging from 80% to 100% of a 22kWh battery pack most nights (so 4.4kWh @ 2.4kW = ~1.8 hours) it's not going to be too bad. It's the equivalent of leaving a heater on for a couple of extra hours - at whatever time you'd like between 6pm and 7am. Given I've recently shifted from incandescent to LED lighting at home, I'm already saving something like 1.5kW from 6pm to 11pm anyway (so say 7.5kWh saving) - I'm still net using less!!!
I'm looking forward to wearing the EV grin - vehicle loads in Yokahama next week!
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby Perry » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:24 am

Well, don't keep us in suspense. What did you buy?
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Re: The year of the EV? (12 Jul, 2017)

Postby 4765656B » Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:10 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i3
Carbon fibre, 0-100 in 7.2 secs.
Looks are a bit "quirky" but truly designed for the job as a nippy town car.
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