Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

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Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:22 am

This column is archived at: http://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2017/0905.shtml

Has the USA been snookered by N.Korea?

Is Trump in a no-win situation?

If he attacks N.Korea preemptively, he risks nuclear retaliation.

If he does nothing, he risks N.Korea making the first move in a highly destructive nuclear conflict.

Might the only way to avoid the danger be for the USA to come bearing flowers and gifts -- opting to buy their way out of this stand-off by offering N.Korea the things it so badly needs?

Or is Trump too arrogant and proud to engage in such a peace-saving move?

The ghosts of the Gulf War worry me immensely.

What do readers think? What will the next move be in this high-stakes game of one-upmanship and does Trump have the balls to resist the undoubted pressure from his military to make a first-strike that could start the next nuclear conflict?
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:55 am

- As you say, there's no oil so no boots on the ground for the USA in NK.
- No preemptive strike either as China will defend NK unless NK shoots first.
- NK wants to join the grown-ups table with it's toys but even Kimmy knows if they start something that will be their end.

End result: lots of bluster while NK gears up but no actual shoot-out, with probable further economic sanctions.
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby phill » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:11 am

is fat kimmy a king or a pawn

or is this more the larger international game of who did what to who and how
should one ask what really is .. the aim of drones
has pootin been playing the game by supplying tech and advice to fat kimmy ( why has fat kimmy been really stressing its all my own work lately )
knowing america only has so much tolerance for shit on its face
any reaction then allows pootin more scope in what it can do to deal with its own problems in ( esp ) Chechnya and Ukraine
does china know this and thats why it really doesnt want to go anywhere near there

traditionally the fat kimmies have always beaten the drum before putting the hand out
and the hand out has never achieved anything other than raising the stakes the next time .. pretty sure that games done ( agreements have to at least look a little like someone took notice for a few days )

i still favour the fpv stake for fat kimmy as the only way to create a more stable nk 09/09
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby hagfish » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:31 am

Nukes: check
Miniaturised nukes: maybe
ICBM: check
Re-entry system: not yet.

Once the missing puzzle pieces are in place (or fall of the back of a Ukrainian Ural) KJU will be all set to ramp up mass production. The window where the USA can attack without a nuclear reprisal is rapidly closing. May already be closed.
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby Malcolm » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:55 am

This is the same song and dance which has been happening for decades. NK makes loud noises and advances their nuke program, the US talks tough back. Eventually they make a deal to step back in exchange for food etc. NK leader gets to look tough to his people and stare down the big bad US and bring back some treats. The US gets to look like a peacemaker looking after global security. Unfortunately this time it looks like one of the dance partners has two left feet.
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby GoGijoe » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:09 pm

NK has Coal and Iron Ore,

The us is still technically at war with nk as there is no treaty

from what i was reading reunification would cost in the order of a trillion+ or so and the us would have to admit they lost the Korean war and leave the peninsula to boot, because if there is peace why do they need a 30+k standing foreign army. it actually suits there purposes to have NK around because they get to keep another country (S Korea) as a perpetual subjective client state.

It suits NK to keep playing for more time, 10 or so more years and reunification will be all but impossible. mostly because the current youth dont want to pay for it, and the fact NK will be treated as second class citizens, creating social strife S korea dosnt really like.
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby JonL » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:23 pm

Look beyond the shite the MSM are propogating. NK has been quite prepared to talk but the US refuse to. The NK regime don't want to end up like Iraq and Libya. All the US had to do was stop the highly provocative war games, they carty out every yeat, based on removing the NK regime, but, every year they play there silly games and NK, to not lose face, fires off a rocket or 2 in a show of strength. NK has neither the means or motive to nuke mainland USA, but Guam, where the main US airbase is, is another matter. Nk could kill 3million in Seoul with conventional artillery, and would be more inclined to nuke Japan.....long memories.....
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby hagfish » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:07 pm

Malcolm wrote:This is the same song and dance which has been happening for decades. NK makes loud noises and advances their nuke program, the US talks tough back. Eventually they make a deal to step back in exchange for food etc. NK leader gets to look tough to his people and stare down the big bad US and bring back some treats. The US gets to look like a peacemaker looking after global security. Unfortunately this time it looks like one of the dance partners has two left feet.

I used to think this; "he'll rattle his sabre until he gets his shipment of rice and a Big Mac" ha ha etc. Once Kim Jong Un has a few (hundred) nuclear weapons and a working delivery system, he might start thinking, "actually..."
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby Screw » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:25 pm

Jonl is right, the US holds yearly war dances just south of the border. Put the shoe on the other foot; how would the US feel if their potential nuke armed "enemy": starts holding war games a few miles off their coast or border? Nervous? Pissed off?

Kimmie is not stupid and he knows that the US could completely destroy NK in hours should they attack. But.... here's the big but - Kimmie could do incredible damage before he goes down.

There is a strong smell of hypocrisy here too; I've got nukes but you can't have 'em. Kimmie knows too what happened to Libya after Gaddafi gave up his nukes.

NK has the second largest known deposit if easily mined Lithium as well.
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Re: Stand well clear! (5 Sep, 2017)

Postby roygbiv » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:35 pm

The main question we need to know is what KJU is expecting to achieve out of all this. He is leading a country that in terms of economics is on its knees, the population appears to be brainwashed into adoration for him and have little contact with the outside world. He now has nuclear capability and has paid a high price for it in terms of his peoples well being, sanctions etc.
Both Russia and China whilst wanting to keep Trump out will react similarly if he hits the nuclear BRB - or even the conventional one.
For the last 60 years there has been a stand off with NK who have been a buffer zone between western capitalist economy of South Korea and communist China. Only now the stakes are higher and the US MSM feel uncomfortable because they could be potential targets with the ICBMs.

I suspect that the trade sanctions are killing NK's future and everyone knows it apart from the NK people who are suffering. One way out is to do what the UN have been saying and kill the nuclear program with a view of NK later joining the global community. The other for KJU is provoke some sort of pre-emptive attack on NK where he can justify retaliation, gain support from the Chinese (and Russians ?) and unify the peninsula - result genocide and a destabilised asian region.
The key to this is to find out what KJU wants
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