Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

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Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:38 am

This column is archived at: http://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2017/1102.shtml

It's hard to find a metal with a more volatile price history in recent times than nickel.

Does this volatility make it a perfect choice for "taking a punt" with futures trading?

Or is the risk that new (nickel-free) battery technologies may arrive at any day mean that the predicted demand could evaporate before any gains are realised?

Maybe you'd be better off investing in some bonus bonds eh?
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby GoGijoe » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:08 am

there was plenty of nickle around last I checked as a secondary or tertiary material (its a by product of mining something else)

they closed a mine in australia a few months ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/firstqu ... SL1N1KV1ZJ

at current prices its still not viable to keep it running?
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby Glenn » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:17 am

Li-Ion batteries can be produced without using nickel. I believe the Panasonic?? ones used in the Nissan Leaf EV are nickel free.
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby Glenn » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:20 am

Bruce,
The forum time stamp has not been updated to Daylight Saving Time. Either that or my time server has a problem.
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby Muscular Jam » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:21 am

Just looking at its history it doesn't seem a good investment.
Image
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:22 am

Actually, they use nickel straps or nickel-plated copper straps for joining the cells. Nickel is a great metal for this type of application because it welds and solders very well, has good resistance to corrosion and a relatively low electrical resistance. Although nickel does not play a part in the chemistry of most Li-Ion cells, it plays an important part in the mechanical construction.
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:25 am

Muscular Jam wrote:Just looking at its history it doesn't seem a good investment.


Au contraire mon amis!

The fact that it is so volatile makes it an excellent speculative commodity. That graph shows what happens when there is perceived to be a looming shortage (huge price rise) and it was only China bringing online a huge amount of mining and refining capacity that brought the price back down. The present speculation has seen a very significant rise over the past 12 months and since China has "shot its bolt" so to speak, there's not much chance that the same sudden decline will happen again.

Even looking at the cyclic nature of price changes over time, it seems to *very* consistently hit a trough every 5 years or so and then show gains of 100% or more within the next 3 years. To be honest, I'd wait another 12-18 months (the next trough) and then buy with a view to selling in 3-year's time from then. Based on the historical trends, that would be a pretty good bet (IMHO).
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby Muscular Jam » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:28 am

Palladium looks better.
Image
According to wikipedia
More than half the supply of palladium and its congener platinum is used in catalytic converters, which convert as much as 90% of the harmful gases in automobile exhaust (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide) into less noxious substances (nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water vapor). Palladium is also used in electronics, dentistry, medicine, hydrogen purification, chemical applications, groundwater treatment, and jewelry. Palladium is a key component of fuel cells, which react hydrogen with oxygen to produce electricity, heat, and water...The numerous applications and limited supply sources result in considerable investment interest.
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby Glenn » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:30 am

aardvark_admin wrote:Actually, they use nickel straps or nickel-plated copper straps for joining the cells. Nickel is a great metal for this type of application because it welds and solders very well, has good resistance to corrosion and a relatively low electrical resistance. Although nickel does not play a part in the chemistry of most Li-Ion cells, it plays an important part in the mechanical construction.

Sorry Bruce,
This I understand. I was simply making the point that a lack of Nickel will not bring production of Li-Ion batteries to a screaming halt.
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Re: Nickel futures anyone? (2 Nov, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:31 am

As for palladium... wait for the next "cold fusion" hype-story to come out of the media and you'll see more gains ;-)
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