EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

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EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:19 am

This column is archived at: http://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2017/1103.shtml

Okay, when do YOU think EVs will outnumber old-school ICE-powered vehicles on our roads?

What do you think is the biggest hurdle to the widespread adoption of EVs by new-car buyers?

How can we mitigate the issues that are currently slowing down the uptake of EVs?
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby latewings » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:04 am

Mrs Wings was in the local shopping mall last night where a couple of Tesla models were on display. The Model X was the most practical given the chicks in the nest we need to cart around, but at $160K it's a hefty price tag for a people mover.

Ergo we'll stick with financial practicality over environmental practicality until a suitable juncture in that equation nudges us from the former to the latter.
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby phill » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:21 am

first .. lets look at the calibre of nz politicians

suffice to say its like looking at the pupils of the ihc schools of yesteryear with that nice but featureless smile and vacant expression
changing govts hasnt made to much difference .. maybe down but not really noticeable
so in short dont look to them for intelligent future planning and proofing

for the foreseeable future and maybe forever i will prefer an reev over an ev ( range extended ) so if i get into trouble a small highly efficient set rpm ice powered generator will supply enough to chug me home
changing the generator to run on 100% ethanol will do for me
so long as i can take it out for when im just doing around town stuff but put back when i want a longer trip its not a weight parasite

for the rest its just to depressing how far these assholes will go to keep the current weight of vehicle as the normal standard .. it comes close to making me cry with anger, frustration and hatred

then you see the inbreds whitebaiting .. and you realize just how far you have to go and how hard it will be
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby Muscular Jam » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:12 pm

A few thoughts. Our family has 2 cars. 1 small efficient one for around town use, 1 larger 6-seater one for my work vehicle, long trips, towing trailers, or when we are taking kids friends places. I would happily swap the little one for an ev tomorrow. However I've never bought a new car in my life or paid more than $10k. So its going to take a while until 2nd hand evs get down into my price range. However when I do get an EV I'm eyeing up my north sloping garage roof for a DIY solar installation, which will hopefully bypass the distribution infrastructure problems. But I reckon our little car has another 10 years left in it, so I'm not rushing into anything right now. In 2000 nz cars averaged 11.5 years old. in 2010 that had increased to 13 years, and by 2015 it had got to 14 years.
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby roygbiv » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:27 pm

phill wrote:first .. lets look at the calibre of nz politicians


I don't think these guys will have much influence, market demand will dictate what type of vehicle we will be using. You look at the last 10 years where the number of saloon and even sporty cars running diesel engines has increased significantly on our NZ roads. Perhaps it is because of the cheaper price of diesel, but more like those cars are made and used in Europe where the trend has been taken up here. Diesel engined cars and the technology leaps made recently may well have plateaued so the motor vehicle producers are now looking at EVs.

Plus, looking ahead in Europe we can see legislation there banning sales of diesel and petrol engine cars by 2040 and :-

"The environmental push comes as the U.K. plans to invest more than 800 million pounds ($1 billion) in driverless and zero-emission technology and outlined plans to invest 246 million pounds in battery technology research. But for activists and opposition politicians, the new targets are not ambitious enough."

So the writing is on the wall for ICEs. To answer your question with facts at the moment I would say 2030-2040 may see EVs outnumber them.

As far as when do we re-charge our EVs, easy - overnight. We are lucky in NZ that we have 80%+ of generated energy is renewable already. So when we are tucked up with teddy having turned off all our heat pumps, iPads and Smart TVs, the wind is still blowing, the rivers are still flowing and the earths core is still hot. Ideal time to charge up the EV.
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby par_annoyed » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:59 pm

An interesting conundrum to think about for me. Lots of questions, no real answers -

Will we run into 'peak metal' for Lithium, Nickel, rare earths ?
Will we run into a supply problem for charging all those EVs ?
Will the whole thing fizzle due to lack of range ? (or perhaps EVs become 'urban commuters' with long range drivers sticking to ICE, or perhaps quite a few drivers owning one of each....)
What is the lifecycle of the standard EV battery like compared to a typical ICE engine (including servicing costs etc). Also how much is a replacement battery pack compared to an engine rebuild/replace ?
How fast will recharging stations get rolled out ? This is especially important for places like NZ with a highly uneven population density - again, does this favour the 'urban EV' and 'country ICE' solution ??

Then we can add all sorts of issues like govt subsidies (direct or indirect, like lower road duty) and how much of an effect they will have, and it gets very,very messy.

Peak Oil should have happened by now - forecasts were 2015-2020, and it was quite a big deal, but a new technology (fracking) re-enabled many fields for more extraction at a sustainable price, so it gets delayed by 20 (?) years.

If we find a big battery breakthrough (capacity and fast charging I reckon are the issues) then this will tip things into favour for the EV, We've got the current supply/control and motors pretty much nailed.
Or perhaps if the world invests in lighter kevlar/teflon/?? bodies, a significant weight saving means more range....

Even then, the ICE won't die overnight, it will fade away instead (a bit like carburettors) as people replace their cars, which of course is partly dependent on wages, economy ... and you can't convert easily (unlike shoving a bigger ICE in your current car)

I can't see EVs being in the majority for at least 15 years, under todays conditions. Smeone might develop a bitumen battery tomorrow , but I still can't see less than 15 years somehow.....
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby Muz » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:25 pm

roygbiv wrote:
Plus, looking ahead in Europe we can see legislation there banning sales of diesel and petrol engine cars by 2040 and :-

So the writing is on the wall for ICEs. To answer your question with facts at the moment I would say 2030-2040 may see EVs outnumber them.


I can't help feeling that when Europe makes their move, NZ will be flooded with cheap "just banned" vehicles from everywhere else. The Greenies don't want hydro, nobody wants wind farms (in their backyard) and solar will be too damned expensive because the pollies have too big a share in the power companies so EV's will remain expensive. The temptation of a fancy european car at giveaway prices will easily offset the price of fuel and NZ will become one of the last countries in the western world to convert.

Hope I'm wrong but .......
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby Kiwiiano » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:29 pm

It's note-worthy that Norway's fleet is 32% EV, whereas NZ is currently 3.2%. True, there are tentative steps from up at Fort Fumble to encourage the shift, there was an actual ad in the Press this week promoting EVs, with a link to http://www.electricvehicles.govt.nz but the rest of the ads and reviews are for big & expensive SUVs etc. I guess it's the same problem as builders persisting with McMansions, there's far more profit margins in an expensive model that one that is racing to the bottom.

That said, I suspect (hope) that the shift may come sooner than we imagine if the tempo for autonomous EVs picks up. We may yet see vehicles becoming lighter/flimsier/cheaper simply because autonomous vehicles are far less likely to have prangs than easily distracted humans. In fact the demise of the ICE may be because they are causing too many accidents. Plus as their numbers dwindle more service stations will fold returning range anxiety to liquid fuelled car owners as it was in the 1900's.

For a bit of light entertainment, go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&t=1614s for a presentation by Tony Seba, an expert in disruptive technologies. Note the difference between 1900 and 1913.

Re queries about performance of EV, try Wikipedia's entry for the Nissan Leaf, the most affordable EV currently available in NZ.
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“I'm right 98% of the time, so who gives a damn about the other 3%?"
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby hagfish » Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:46 am

For motorised transport to supplant horse-drawn, quite a few ducks had to be lined up. We needed new materials for pistons and valves; techniques for machining them; gasoline and service stations; pneumatic tyres (thanks, cycling!); mass production and assembly lines; road rules that work at 20mph, rather than 3mph; social acceptance; an affluent middle class; etc etc. It took a while to get from Karl Benz to Henry Ford.

With EVs, everything is already in place except for the charging stations. Most of us would just need a 400V spur to the garage and we're all set. It should be easy. 'Lithium' batteries only require a pinch of the stuff. A 400Kg battery pack is mostly other stuff. The tricky bit will be prising our gas-powered cars from our garages.

But I think that's only half the story. The other half will be making the sensing, processing and comms systems smaller, lighter, and less thirsty. Vehicle autonomy is the bigger, more interesting piece of the puzzle, and has to potential to effect the biggest societal change.

Five years for EVs to hit 50% of new registrations; 10 years for autonomous vehicle miles to exceed meat-driven mileage.
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Re: EVs, have a guess (3 Nov, 2017)

Postby paulw » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:22 pm

Muz wrote:
roygbiv wrote:
Plus, looking ahead in Europe we can see legislation there banning sales of diesel and petrol engine cars by 2040 and :-

So the writing is on the wall for ICEs. To answer your question with facts at the moment I would say 2030-2040 may see EVs outnumber them.


I can't help feeling that when Europe makes their move, NZ will be flooded with cheap "just banned" vehicles from everywhere else. The Greenies don't want hydro, nobody wants wind farms (in their backyard) and solar will be too damned expensive because the pollies have too big a share in the power companies so EV's will remain expensive. The temptation of a fancy european car at giveaway prices will easily offset the price of fuel and NZ will become one of the last countries in the western world to convert.

Hope I'm wrong but .......

You're most likely correct if the events in Wellington in the past week are anything to go by. The Labor led new government decided it didn't want to override the Labor led Wellington council and call for a stay into scrapping of their EV bus fleet , the trolley buses and replace them with 10 year old diesels from Auckland. The NZ Gov just plays lip service to EVs these days..
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