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Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:28 am
by aardvark_admin
This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/0116.shtml

An honest mistake?

Or a clever way of reminding the US population that a nuclear attack would be no joke?

Might the Trump administration be boxing clever on this one and softening up the people of the USA in advance of a preemptive strike against North Korea; a strike designed to take out its burgeoning nuclear strike capabilities?

You tell me.

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:58 am
by Muscular Jam
I generally use Hanlon's razor: never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:43 am
by Kiwiiano
This morning’s news suggests the “button” was a single on-screen dropdown with two adjacent options of something like “Test alert” and “Alert” and a slip of the mouse clicked on the wrong one. I’d go with ‘never attribute to malice what is explained by stupidity” and in this case the stupidity of the powers-that-be that had such an appallingly badly designed protocol. I gather they realise just who has the eggy face, for both the design and the lack of procedures to correct the mistake promptly.

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:52 am
by aardvark_admin
Muscular Jam wrote:I generally use Hanlon's razor: never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity

The only thing more powerful than Hanlon's razor is the cunning of a politician's advisors.

They have "plausible deniability" as a defense when it comes to accusations of deliberately raising the fear/awareness level -- all thanks to Hanlon's razor :-)

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:05 am
by goosemoose
I believe little Johnny boy Key was there at the time. Perhaps it was a cunning plan to try and make him home/away.

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:17 am
by komodo5692
Bryce once again raises an amazing point in his column. It is just poor decision making by those in charge. It is probably giving his column a second read just to make sure you haven't missed out on any subtle or nuanced meanings.

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:13 am
by paulw
Didn't this happen "by mistake" here with our system last year?? Scared the crap out of those who got from memory.

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:46 am
by hagfish
It would be a comfort to me to attribute this to malice/guile. At least it would mean *someone* has their hand on the helm. Alas, I think some luckless soul clicked 'alert' instead of 'test' and whooper-days!

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:34 am
by aardvark_admin
To those who suggested that the false alert was simply a mistake I'd say "once is a mistake, twice is a ploy".

Now the Japanese have done exactly the same thing -- perhaps for the very same reason?

Many Japanese are staunchly anti-war (probably because their grandparents and great grandparents told them of what happened to the nation as a result of WW2) so has the Japanese government (at the direction of the US government) engaged in some "softening up" of public opinion in the way that happened in Hawaii last weekend?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1006 ... sile-alert

Has anyone changed their mind about whether this is human error or a cunning political manipulation of public opinion yet?

Re: Missile alert, accident or ploy? (16 Jan, 2018)

PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:52 am
by Muscular Jam
aardvark_admin wrote:Has anyone changed their mind about whether this is human error or a cunning political manipulation of public opinion yet?
Our system glitched, Hawaii had a glitch, Japan had a glitch. The common denominator I see is all 3 involved humans So I am sticking with Hanlon for now.

but what scares me shirtless is what happens if a glitch affects someone sitting by a big red button. it has happened to to the yanks in 79 and soviets in 83