Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

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Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:36 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/0227.shtml

Are EVs taking off even more quickly than we'd expected just a few short years ago?

Why not have a go at predicting the first year in which the sale of new EVs will exceed the sale of fossil-fueled new vehicles here in NZ.

And is climate change happening far more rapidly than we'd anticipated? Might NZ become a frigid zone if we get an inversion over Antarctica which forces polar temperatures into the roaring 40s?
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby phill » Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:38 am

that might be awhile
couple of forces at work that control that
we are not predominantly a new car buying nation
we are a cheap second hand Japanese car buying nation

that means the market is more controlled by availability than desires

will the japs keep the same registration requirements for older ev's they have for ice cars
when they like everyone else see the benefits in a much higher percentage of ev's over ice cars
methinks they might modify their rules to favour ev's in which case it will be longer before they hit the market here
indeed we could be faced with them never sending ev's that are still useful to the overseas markets

so then who buys the most new vehicles
corporates and government
neither of which are renown for intelligence or responsibility
Last edited by phill on Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby latewings » Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:24 am

Couple of issues will arise from EV's. Firstly is the 5% threshold for Road Tax across the entire NZ fleet? That could be interesting if Aucklanders keen to avoid Phil's 11.5c fuel tax jump on the bandwagon and the rest of the country don't.

Will the AA charge (pardon the pun) differently for an EV wof? I'm unaware of how regenerative braking could be tested using the rolling brake drums seen in a lot of Testing stations. And how to you check the self driving database is up to date? And can that be a go/no go for a WOF?

So I'm reluctant to consider an EV due to pitfalls that regulators may introduce once the EV fleet becomes larger and revenue from fleecing drivers for WOF and RUC drops.
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby ffirman » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:06 pm

We are already a 2 EV household. 1 is a short range Leaf which in the 6 months we have had it, done 10,327kms. And now only for 3 weeks, an Hyundai Ioniq EV, which has a longer range.

The Ioniq has meant in the 3 weeks we have had it, we have done over 1600km. Done a trip to Hamilton and this last weekend a night over in Tauranga, after dropping the kids off to family in Hamilton.

The petrol car, that we still have, averaged 11km/litre of petrol and the Leaf is equiv of 65km/litre and the Ioniq, 83km/litre. That is using the basic rate that a litre of petrol holds about 10Kwh of energy.

Without RUC, we have saved $1800 so far with the Leaf, and with RUC it would still have been a $1163 excluding maintenance.

So we personally have found the EV a brilliant car, and we won't be buying any ICE cars in the future.

Last year in Norway, the best selling EV was the VW E-golf and they sold around 6500.

This year, by mid Feb, the had been 7000 2018 Nissan Leafs sold, and that is looking to be the best selling car for all cars in Norway. So there at least the change is happened.

For us, end of last year 6600 registered EV's and Plug in Hybrids. New Registrations for Jan, 600 ish. So here in NZ, looking like we will double the number this year. Not very many from a total number.. but growing very quickly.

We see heaps of EV's around Titirangi now, mostly Leafs, but a few Teslas also.


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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby Kiwiiano » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:57 pm

Replication of Arctic conditions over Antarctica is unlikely as the northern hemisphere has an ocean surrounded by land and in the south we have a huge mass of land/ice surrounded by water. That doesn’t exclude the possibility of some weird weather as we are already seeing, just different from up north.
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby mad » Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:20 pm

You can buy a Tesla S or X from the dealer in Auckland, but you will need a minimum $120K to spare

The 3 is still in "production hell" and I would not expect to see RHD models in this part of the world until late 2019, and even then you will need to have reserved one last year....

Looks like we will not get the new Leaf 2.0 until 2019, but the i3, egolf and ioniq are available now....

It appears that due to stink bugs and other factors 2nd hand Leafs from Japan could be going up in price for the next few months....
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby joeseph » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:01 pm

Teslas seem to be getting a good "push" at the moment - two shopping Malls I visited last week had two each on display, and by on display I mean "come on in & have a seat, we don't mind if your kids have a seat too"
So my kids had a seat... Must say they look the part, the gull-wing one has a quite sensible seating arrangement for kids (two rows in the back to try & distance the squabbling) but I don't think there was nearly enough boot-space for the amount of crap we tend to lug around.
And the cheapest one was going to be $160k (we bought a 7-seater Dodge Journey new last year for $36k so I don't think we'll be changing anytime soon)


bring the price down a bit (or quite a bit) and give them a bit more range and I think they'll be selling like hotcakes.
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby joeseph » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:06 pm

ffirman wrote:We are already a 2 EV household. 1 is a short range Leaf which in the 6 months we have had it, done 10,327kms. And now only for 3 weeks, an Hyundai Ioniq EV, which has a longer range.

The Ioniq has meant in the 3 weeks we have had it, we have done over 1600km. Done a trip to Hamilton and this last weekend a night over in Tauranga, after dropping the kids off to family in Hamilton.

The petrol car, that we still have, averaged 11km/litre of petrol and the Leaf is equiv of 65km/litre and the Ioniq, 83km/litre. That is using the basic rate that a litre of petrol holds about 10Kwh of energy.

Without RUC, we have saved $1800 so far with the Leaf, and with RUC it would still have been a $1163 excluding maintenance.

So we personally have found the EV a brilliant car, and we won't be buying any ICE cars in the future.

Last year in Norway, the best selling EV was the VW E-golf and they sold around 6500.

This year, by mid Feb, the had been 7000 2018 Nissan Leafs sold, and that is looking to be the best selling car for all cars in Norway. So there at least the change is happened.

For us, end of last year 6600 registered EV's and Plug in Hybrids. New Registrations for Jan, 600 ish. So here in NZ, looking like we will double the number this year. Not very many from a total number.. but growing very quickly.

We see heaps of EV's around Titirangi now, mostly Leafs, but a few Teslas also.


Fran.


I'm not convinced that the running cost savings yet equals or betters the purchase prices... be happier if it were the case.
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Re: Rapid change: EVs and global warming (27 Feb, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:41 am

Kiwiiano wrote:Replication of Arctic conditions over Antarctica is unlikely as the northern hemisphere has an ocean surrounded by land and in the south we have a huge mass of land/ice surrounded by water. That doesn’t exclude the possibility of some weird weather as we are already seeing, just different from up north.

Apparently (if our friends at the NZ-version of the DM are correct), there *is* a southern equivalent of this effect:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/cli ... ounterpart
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