Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 2018)

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Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon May 21, 2018 10:22 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/0521.shtml

How long before the next global pandemic -- or do we have sufficienty preventative measures in place to prevent it?

Will it be a variant of influenza, a strain of Ebola or will it be something completely new, presently unheard of?

What measures do our woodenheads have in place to:

a) prevent its arrival in NZ
b) control its spread within NZ
c) manage the disease and treat its victims
d) recover from the decimation that such a pandemic would create

What steps have you taken (if any) to survive the arrival of such a pandemic? Is your emergency food/water store big enough to remain quarantined in your house for a couple of months?
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby phill » Mon May 21, 2018 10:45 am

they wont do anything till they are really really sure its here
closing or restricting our border is inconvenient to the tourist industry and we risk loosing a few dollars
so obviously thats just not an option
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby latewings » Mon May 21, 2018 12:18 pm

Mrs Wings was nursing many years back on a specialist ADHB ward. News came out several days later one patient had been diagnosed with SARS (or an equally notifiable and sinister ailment) so anyone in immediate contact with staff working at that time were quarantined. Turns out they mixed up the AM/PM shift so she wasn't there at the time the plague bearer was on the ward (and quickly isolated), so we were all clear.

Jolly annoying to find ourselves prisoner in our own house for a short period. It was after that we increased the non perishable food stocks to ensure we had sufficient for a little longer than the next meal time. It also brought home the level of panic authorities display when faced with pandemic diseases: act first, check later. (Although that's probably the better course of action.)
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby hagfish » Mon May 21, 2018 12:22 pm

There's a school of thought that the plagues of the middle ages were part of what sparked the Renaissance, the Enlightenment etc. If a third of the population disappears, the remainder suddenly become much more 'wealthy'. The remaining people can abandon marginal land, and can use only the best land for agriculture and grazing. They become much more productive per capita. All the smithies and mills are still operational - just waiting for new owners/staff - and wages rise. Everyone gets to live a bit higher on the hog and presto, some bright spark comes up with Humanism.

If a similar cull took place in industrialised society, there would be fewer people to do the pointless busywork most of us do all day, but also much less demand for that kind of 'work'. Debts would be forgiven, a lot of dairy cows would get eaten, and people would (hopefully) pull together to rebuild society. NZ would be rather lovely, until the plumes of radioactive fallout started to cross the intertropical convergence zone.
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby Muscular Jam » Mon May 21, 2018 6:13 pm

aardvark_admin wrote:nature has a very good track record of dealing with species which begin to harm other aspects of the environment or which over-predate other species.
Really? Care to provide any examples?
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby latewings » Mon May 21, 2018 10:08 pm

Post by Muscular Jam » Mon May 21, 2018 6:13 pm

aardvark_admin wrote:
nature has a very good track record of dealing with species which begin to harm other aspects of the environment or which over-predate other species.
Really? Care to provide any examples?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_Campaign which in part lead to the Great Chinese Famine. Policy to rid the land of sparrows ultimately caused crop yields to sharply decline through bug infestation the sparrows kept under control.
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Re: Are we overdue for another global pandemic? (21 May, 201

Postby Muscular Jam » Tue May 22, 2018 10:04 pm

latewings wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_Campaign which in part lead to the Great Chinese Famine. Policy to rid the land of sparrows ultimately caused crop yields to sharply decline through bug infestation the sparrows kept under control.
Thanks, a good read on human short-sightedness. I read a wonderful book in the 80s called "The IRG Solution - Hierarchical Incompetence and how to overcome it." which contained many similar examples. But I confess I don't quite see the connection with Bruce's statement that:
Gaia never sleeps and nature has a very good track record of dealing with species which begin to harm other aspects of the environment or which over-predate other species.
I don't equate humans stuffing up by tinkering with things they don't fully understand with the Gaia hypothesis.
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