The joke that is weather forecasting (3 Dec, 2018)

[par_annoyed]

An idea occurred over lunchtime.....

The perfect Weather forecast .... done like a Brizkoes advert....

TOMORROW ONLY !!! Special Weather !!

Up to 100 MM of rain.
Up to 50 C temperature
Up to 150 KPh of wind.
Up to 100% chance of thunderstorms.....

and in the small print at the bottom...........

"excludes specified locations, islands, extreme events, man made events, rains of frogs and fish, local anomalies".

and that way IT'S ALWAYS RIGHT !!

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but seriously, how everyone can say "the science is settled and global Warming is REAL" when at the same time 'experts' can't even get today's weather right.....
Well, I think I'll stop right there.....

[hagfish]

but seriously, how everyone can say "the science is settled and global Warming is REAL" when at the same time 'experts' can't even get today's weather right.....
Well, I think I'll stop right there.....

Your 'but seriously' might actually a '/s' but 'climate' and 'weather' have about as much in common as 'forests' and 'trees'. "You say the forest is changing, but this tree looks fine! And that one's dead! Which is it?"

[phill]

i use this lot
nzcity.co.nz my homepage so its convenient
as for accuracy
often to the hour occasionally to the week .. accurate enough to do the washing by
fishing i search further

from their site
NZCity obtains weather data from multiple sources and occasionally the different sources can produce differing forecasts, however we believe having multiple sources contributes to a more compelling and interesting weather section, and a great point of difference to most major NZ web sites - who often use the same single forecaster.

i could never get my head around "mainly fine "
but it appears they have stopped using it much now

[Perry]

For local weather I've got a vague memory of years past when coastal & other watchers called in their observations, which were then used to put together a forecast. I suspect that was more accurate for short-term forecasts . . .

And yes... I think shifting to a reliance on automation and computer models rather than some "experienced interpolation" by observers around the country has not improved the accuracy of forecasting. I do notice too many days when the forecast is completely at odds with the weather I see outside my window.

From my limited understanding, you chaps have it close to correct. Observers used to phone in with 'actuals,' from around the country. Unlike an automated station, a human could look around and realise that the patch of blue above (as seen by an automaton) was an hole, an aberration, as it was dark, gloomy or rainy, all around. The 'actuals' were used by met service to position systems, be they highs or lows. I.e. the actuals would tell them that the system was moving differently to their predictions, so they adjusted accordingly.

Another thing that happened was the need forced on them by the W'gtron woodenheads, to make a bit of coin. Local horticulturalists get all sorts of comprehensive and likely better forecasts on a pay-for subscription basis. Accordingly, the public guesscasts are 'dithered' to make the pay-for subscriptions seem like value for money.

[Perry]

Chance of 20mm hailstones, severe thunderstorms and downpours

[decibel]

My go-to for weather forecasts - particularly if I'll be in the hills - is yr.no. If found their accuracy to be pretty good.

As for reliable forecasts; if there is a huge (anti) cyclone on its way, then we can be reasonably sure about what the next day or two will bring.

For every other day, why can't they just say, "meh - be sure to apply sunscreen, but remember your raincoat".

They may be good but you can't tell me that someone in Norway is bothering to forecast New Zealand weather.

Most likely, they are just copying the data from some NZ site - but which one?

[Muz]

My go-to for weather forecasts - particularly if I'll be in the hills - is yr.no. If found their accuracy to be pretty good.

As for reliable forecasts; if there is a huge (anti) cyclone on its way, then we can be reasonably sure about what the next day or two will bring.

For every other day, why can't they just say, "meh - be sure to apply sunscreen, but remember your raincoat".

They may be good but you can't tell me that someone in Norway is bothering to forecast New Zealand weather.

Most likely, they are just copying the data from some NZ site - but which one?

Here in Marlborough, Metservice uses the same weather model for every area within Marlborough. However yr.no recognises all the different micro climates within the area. Our weather in Havelock is definitely different from Picton and Blenheim (the latter is all that metservice caters for) and yr.no tends to get it right most of the time. This recent patch of weather seems to test all the forecasters but generally, if yr promises rain at 1pm - I make sure the washing is off the clothesline.

We don't need bigger computers, we just need to "Bring Back the Light House Keepers" and the accuracy will improve.

[Pete_]

It's very simple really. If it doesn't change it will stay the same.

[roygbiv]

Rule one: Here in NZ nobody can predict the weather with reasonable accuracy for any longer than the next day
Rule two: That is it !!

It would be nice to know that the weather is going to be fine in two weeks when you go away, but would the not knowing spoil your holiday, or actually knowing make your holiday better ?
My phone came with a weather app which was something to do with Yahoo, for rule one above it is fine.

[rock]

yr.no has the best weather predictions I've seen for the lower half of the South Island, NZ