Tesla about to be gazumped? (10 Sep, 2018)

[aardvark_admin]

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/0910.shtml

Is it time for Elon Musk to step down from Tesla, before he does more damage?

Is the time for his limelight attracting antics and outrageous statements to end, now that the brand is established and both shareholders and customers are looking for results?

Have Tesla fumbled the ball too much -- effectively spending a fortune on establishing the credibility of EVs, only to have failed in their mission to fulfill the demand they've created? Will Ford, VW, Toyta and perhaps S.Korean auto makers now roll out modern EVs at great prices and with specs that match or exceed Tesla's?

Exactly what will we be driving and what will be the most popular EV in a year or two's time?

[hagfish]

He doesn't run SpaceX day to day - he leaves that to a very capable COO. Rumour has it there were several hires at Tesla this year who were being groomed to take on a similar role, but they've all jumped ship already. He needs a Tim Cook-type to take over the reins at Tesla. Or maybe take Tesla over...

Tesla (and the other manufacturers) are all busy rolling out the EVs we should have had during the closing decades of the 20th century. The EVs of the 21st century will be more akin to shared electric scooter schemes, than the 2-ton dino-juice-guzzlers of olde. Norway has demonstrated that a political thumb on the scales (and a wealthy populace...) can have a dramatic effect on EV uptake.



I expect over here we'll carry on hoovering up Japan's leavings until the supply of old ICE vehicles dries up, and we're left with an aging fleet of meat-piloted, fossil-fueled relics, privately owned power generation, and little charging infrastructure.

[phill]

for the first bit .. imho if musk goes tesla will die .. or at least contract to just low volume high end expensive ev's
its just his relentless drive .... and money thats keeping it going ahead

for the other
https://www.greenbiz.com/article/get-re ... -offensive
these are the likely FORD / GM / BMW / TOYOTA and HONDA killers ... just dont say ROVER or SKODA
there may be a few INDIAN makers that cut into the market but the ICE maker names we know now may just be used for the marketing name

the other thing changing our fleet within the next decade brings up is
LEFT or RIGHT hand drive cars
is it time we bit the bullet and joined most of the world and standardised our fleet to left hand drive cars

we suffer a lot in both cost and availability by hanging onto the traditional british ideas ( as well as a lot of tourist blood on the road )

apart from a few current nightmares around auckland ( which could do with a redesign anyway ) the infrastructure would not be the huge headache it looks like it would be at first glance

is there any here that think changing over is impossible or a really bad idea ? ... why ?

[hagfish]

is there any here that think changing over is impossible or a really bad idea ? ... why ?

If we kick that can down the road for one more 'generation', the vehicles of the (near) future won't have steering wheels at all. At that point, we can train all the pedestrians and all the scooter/bike riders to travel on the right, and the autonomous taxis will find their way much more easily than human drivers. And poor old Samoa, having just switched in 2009... to the left..

[phill]

?
generation of human ( ~30 years )
or
generation of cars
in this case likely to be 5-10 years before acceptable levels of control are available for fully autonomous driving ?

and that was the point
we have the choice atm of having all the old hand driven electric cars left hand drive or right hand drive
there will always be the nostalgia nuts that want to go for a sunday drive in the old style cars
better its in the current mode than the historical one

[hagfish]

?
generation of human ( ~30 years )
or
generation of cars
in this case likely to be 5-10 years before acceptable levels of control are available for fully autonomous driving ?

Sorry - I meant generation of cars. There's not going to be another generation of humans!

[Perry]

is there any here that think changing over is impossible or a really bad idea ? ... why ?

Really bad for me. Been to GorgeRubbleUpushland a few times and managed the 'alternative' road rules without killing anyone or crashing or denting anything. But I'm not keen (late in life) to take that on as a permanent feature. I'll just take a taxi!

An interesting aspect of the de-humanised codification of 'stuff' is my grand daughter. She has grown up entirely on a diet of metrics. Yet I hear her sometimes speak of inches and miles and such. From whence came such frippery?

Perhaps an interesting kiliometrestone in human evolution, perhaps?

Auctioneer: do I hear a bid of fifteen Guineas? 45 Crowns? 3 Dubloons?

Oranges and lemons,
Say the bells of St. Clement's.

You owe me five farthings,
Say the bells of St. Martin's.

Farthings?

Whazzat?

Anyone remember bread @ four pence a half loaf and seven pence ha'penny for a whole loaf?

Unwrapped and all it was.

And nobody died as a consequence.

[phill]

i never said it would be easy .. reality for the oldies esp it will be a pita
but if not us .. then who
if not at this time .. then when
call it a penance for fukin the planet up as much as we have by living off the future
cause in a lot of things the future has come .. and we had it clover for most of our lives

[Kiwiiano]

It pays to be very cautious taking warnings that Tesla is about to go tits-up, the gloomy predictions come thick and fast with monotonous regularity, but are rarely supported by facts that stand up to scrutiny. For example, A recent article made much of the manufacturing costs proving the profits must be marginal if not negative but it turned out it was their own guestimates based on what it cost other manufacturers for similar parts but ignored that Tesla were making those parts (often unique) in-house.
( dug that one up, it’s https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/02/sloppy-ubs-tesla-burn-is-not-supported-by-ubss-own-numbers/ UBS=Union Bank of Switzerland, global financial services.)

More gloom being scrutinized https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/10/insane-ubs-bias-on-tesla-ubs-analyst-recommended-selling-tsla-18-times-in-2-years-recommended-buying-gm-35-times-in-7-years/

Then this https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/elon-musks-2015-forecasts-compared-to-today-the-future-looks-bright/ gives a more buoyant view.

Elon Musk: “I think we should be able to get to probably at least a few million cars in 10 years, per year (…) by 2025, we could probably get to a few million cars per year” (listen starting at 10:07)

I would say Tesla is well on track for that. In January 2016, with fewer than 26,000 vehicles produced in 2015, it may have sounded very unrealistic for most listeners. Today, more than 2½ years later, Tesla is about to produce 11 times that much in 2018, assuming production continues as planned in the last 4 months of the year. To grow to 2 million vehicles in 2025, Tesla has another 7 years to increase the production about 7 times.

In fact, if production growth continues as in the past 2½ years, Tesla will have an output of 3 million electric vehicles in 2021. That’s 4 years ahead of plan.

The other aspect to consider is the woeful approach to EVs from the traditional manufacturers who have a lot of legacy technology at risk of becoming stranded assets. There’s been a lot of dicking about on the fringes and only Nissan, Hyundai and maybe BMW producing much in reality. Not much signs of “waiting to pounce!”, considering the ramp-up times and costs demonstrated by Tesla.