Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

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Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:56 am

This column is archived at https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2020/0629.shmtl

Are we about to see a significant change in mindset with regard to how CV19 is handled by society?

Will it have to become one of those omnipresent dangers that we simply accept and one of life's risks?

Might this be the only way we can ever return to normality -- given that a vaccine may never be effective enough to protect people?

For a point of comparison... heart disease (much of it preventable) kills over 600,000 people a year in the USA and that is the same death rate that CV19 produced at its peak. Yet we still see obesity as a major preventable factor in that heart disease. People choose to hurl fatty or sugary delights down their necks at an ever-increasing rate, despite total awareness of the risks this produces.

Your thoughts please.
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby goosemoose » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:46 am

Great prediction! Have you ever considered a career as an economist!

I haven't seen much reporting from scientists and heath people about the virulence of COVID19 declining - you got any links? If thats true then great, but until then its probably best to safe than sorry.
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:58 am

goosemoose wrote:Great prediction! Have you ever considered a career as an economist!

I'm hoping that trump will hire me as an advisor :-)

I haven't seen much reporting from scientists and heath people about the virulence of COVID19 declining - you got any links? If thats true then great, but until then its probably best to safe than sorry.

Take a look at this: https://youtu.be/8ds__K7CuwU?t=315
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby hagfish » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:13 am

I think the comparison you draw with driving illustrates several differences between driving and Covid-19.

With driving, you can take a modicum of care and dramatically increase your changes of avoiding a stupident. With the virus, hospital workers are dying in large numbers.

If everyone just gave up and browsed their phones while driving, the accident rate would certainly increase, but it would level off. Accidents don't cause more accidents. Transmission of a virus grows exponentially until virtually everyone is sick.

No one knows what the long-term effects of Covid-19 are. Until there's a bit more certainty about that, I'll treat it as if HIV could be spread by coughing.

Number three is similar to driving, in that having a prang does not protect you from the next one. The evidence around Covid-19 immunity (and its effects on our other immunities) is still at the 'wait and see' stage.
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby Perry » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:38 am

hagfish wrote:With the virus, hospital workers are dying in large numbers.

In what country? NZ seems to be doing sort-of O.K. with that count. Could it be related to differing hospital standards, from one country to another?

Will the global / NZ 'recovery' - whatever form it takes - not have two major components?
* Economic
* Health

I suspect that the "economic"component will be the toughest. Some aspects will be difficult to see clearly. The way it's been talked about, the proposed closure by AMI of all it's shop-front retail outlets was already on the cards, but the resultant unemployment consequences may still get rounded-up into covid-19 fall out stats.

I do wonder though - fingers-crossed that Bruce is right - it it will not get worse before it gets better?

As for e-con-o-mists, they're best ignored. Reference this item.

What's really going to happen with New Zealand's house prices? Only one guy got it right: I have no idea.

Recall the crocodile tears by the PM over being still on full pay? Amazing how emergency legislation suspending NZ citizens' civil rights could be rushed through within 24 hours, but clipping MPs' stipend was just too hard. Seems very odd. Anyways . . .

Has anyone seen any mention that the six-month 20% pay cut ever happened? If so, was in back-dated to level 4 days?
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby phill » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:43 am

Total cases by DHB in hospital
Source: DHB survey as at 9.00 am, 28 June 2020 DHB Total cases
Auckland 1
Total 1

i remember an episode of bewitched when samantha had a young daughter learning her powers
as they were uncontrolled desires it was not called witchcraft but wishcraft instead .


a lot of the theories about the effects of covid ( mostly inspired by the economist sect ) involve a lot of wishcraft .. and are very sparse on real facts ... from my observations

most are also fudging over the long term problems this virus has left behind in lung damage ( and many other organs ) that will have to come out of future medical budgets
it would also seem most of the new cases ( cases ,, not all those in quarantine ) in quarantine are kiwi's of convenience coming here either knowing they are infected and can get better treatment here than elsewhere .. or at least suspecting that is the case and preparing for it
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby Dio Gratia » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:52 am

Perhaps a new normal is in order. (I worry about yet another virus.)

Image
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby Weasel » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:33 am

You fell into the trap of comparing COVID death rates with other much more static things, a car crash doesn't "affect" the first 10 or 20 cars to pass by the crash in such a way that they then go onto crash with-in 4 weeks, if that was the case, then car accidents would suddenly spiral out of control, you'd see the numbers of crashes doubling at greater and greater rates. This is how COVID works, as evidenced in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, it's been sneaking around quietly for the last couple of months because they chose to slack off, now its off to the races again.
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby hagfish » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:54 am

Perry wrote:
hagfish wrote:With the virus, hospital workers are dying in large numbers.

In what country? NZ seems to be doing sort-of O.K. with that count. Could it be related to differing hospital standards, from one country to another?


Up until April 2; 9,282 United States health-care workers had been diagnosed with Covid-19. 723 were hospitalised, including 184 in the ICU. 27 had died from Covid-19 infection. So that's one country. Comparing that with NZ where only 89 people were hospitalised at all is comparing our road toll with that of the Chatham Islands - unhelpful. Disingenuous, even.
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Re: Covid-19, the good and bad news (29 Jun 2020)

Postby phill » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:24 pm

mentioning the road toll as if its something we don't address is .. probably not accurate

what is the cost per person of the covid response
against
what is the cost per person of the road toll and hence safety measures
please include cost of cars with more than a basic frame and motor .. construction to crash standards .. safety belts .. some air bags .. speed limits .. safer road construction .. all road construction .. speed limits .. the cost of running and installing street lights .. same traffic lights .. it probably ends up costing more per person than you think ..
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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