Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

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Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:34 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/0917.shtml

Safety first!

That's not a bad concept -- except that it seems to have been misinterpreted by some bureaucrats and rule-makers as "safety above all else" -- which is kind of different.

We can never achieve 100% safety. Even the act of getting out of bed in the morning carries a degree or risk -- so should we spend the day lying on our backs? Oh, hang on, the vast majority of people die in bed so that would be too dangerous too!

Sadly, the over-zealous actions of our H&S often significantly compromise the efficiency of relatively simple and safe tasks -- which represents a growing cost to the entire nation.

And even more strangely, we now have government departments (CAA and The Ministry of Transport) working on creating rules and regulations before they've even done the most basic risk analysis.

How the hell does that work?

If you don't know the cause of your problems, how can you come up with workable solutions?

Do you feel safer, knowing that the rules which are going to protect you from things in the sky are being made by people with relatively low levels of knowledge, experience and understanding of that which they regulate?

Does it concern you that they're going to roll out a raft of new rules without even having done the most basic risk analysis and (seemingly) basing their awareness of such risks solely on the fake news published by the mainstream media and the rantings of small groups with highly vested commercial interests?

Don't we deserve better?
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby phill » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:29 am

step one ( aka 101 ) in all the H&S courses i have done or googled is always the same

1/ identify ..

without that the rest is just noise
needless to say .. if you are incapable of being able to correctly identify risks .. you shouldn't be doing it

the next procedure is .. eliminate ... if that is impracticable .. minimise .... at no point do any say .. eliminate is the only option
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiney things i have got
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby goosemoose » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:42 am

Oh I think they have done a risk analysis. Just not the one we're all used to. Most corporates won't do a traditional risk analysis of actual risks and what they have to do about them. The results will normally require big dollars to mitigate and as you say, will involve talking and taking advice from those at the coal face. Instead they'll do an analysis of the risks of what happens when they screw up and what sort of PR or policy nonsense they have to have overcome these risks. Much cheaper. I suspect thats what they're doing here or something along those lines.
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby phill » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:59 pm

ahhhh i get it
so
dont hire a doctor
hire a spin doctor
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiney things i have got
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby Muscular Jam » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:51 pm

Regarding "Darwinism" you keep using that word, but I do not think it means what you think it means. Evolution like any other science is constantly being refined. The first real theory of evolution was Lamarck's transmutation of species. It faced some competition from Darwin & Wallace's natural selection, then Darwin was eclipsed for a while by neo-Lamarckism and Saltation. The development of population genetics ended the eclipse of Darwin by combining natural selection with Mendel's genetics to form what was known in 1942 as the modern synthesis. In the 1960s developments in molecular biology led to molecular evolution. But in the 1970s recombinant DNA technology brought embryology together with molecular genetics to form Evolutionary developmental biology aka "evo-devo". Now the study of transgenerational epigenetic inheritance means it will probably need to be revised again. So referring to Evolution as "Darwinism" is grossly inaccurate.
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby roygbiv » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:14 pm

Muscular Jam wrote:Regarding "Darwinism" you keep using that word,


But when used in the correct context which is how I read it - makes perfect sense.

I am resigned to the fact that safety is now a big industry - and it is flourishing.
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby phill » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:37 pm

yup semantics

thanks ( probably mainly ) to the darwin awards its accepted terminology for the excessively stupid finding a way to remove themselves from the functional gene pool
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby Muscular Jam » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:47 pm

Fair enough, I was misinterpreting it as being in a scientific sense. My apologies.
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:48 pm

Yes, although the scientific sense still applies somewhat. Those who are not well adapted for life in the modern high-risk environment would find (without H&S nazis to protect them) that they will fail to make it to puberty and thus the genes that create that unsuitability would be struck from the gene-pool.
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Re: Risk analysis? What's that? (17 Sep, 2018)

Postby paulw » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:36 am

An interesting contrast about two years ago when I was in the Goldcoast and traveling along a four lane highway where someone was mowing the grass along it. He just had a couple of road cones , his tractor had a slashing light and he was dressed in the floro vest with a lawn mowing sign just before where he was working. Contrast this to NZ now. 500 meters of road cones either side. 30Kph speed limit with one lane blocked off with a couple of traffic management trucks with flashing arrows and 5 or six people with floro vest , hard hats etc. No wonder it cost so much to do thing in this country. My wife's church in Auckland cost them $1200 to get a manhole inspection done. It too the guy about two minutes to do it but the church had to submit a traffic management plan to the council before they would do it ..
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