More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018)

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More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018)

Postby aardvark_admin » Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:47 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2018/1101.shtml

Seriously... is it true that releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere will have little harmful effect?

And is it a fact that methane is not the climate-change villain it has been painted to be?

How can this right-wing science be so at odds with what we're being told from other sources?

Can politicial leanings really change the outcome of science?
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby Perry » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:46 am

Perhaps the worst part of the whole debate is the expression:
The science is settled.
Seems to me to be far from it.
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby Kiwiiano » Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:07 am

Science is never settled, but it can be proposed, demonstrated, checked and confirmed, becoming the foundations for further investigation...until someone comes up with another proposal that survives the checking process. Happens regularly, but it doesn’t permit claims that, say, gravity is bunk & could be disproved at any time and it’s OK to step off this cliff.

Re the claim that greenhouse gases have a logarithmic effect, it leaves an explanation gap as to why the earlier periods were so much hotter when the CO2 levels were higher. See https://xkcd.com/1379/

It’s also not envisaged in the article that even if the rapidly rising GHG levels don’t cause much further change (and there’s no sign that is correct) there is enough in the atmosphere and enough surplus heat already in the biosphere to cause profound changes to the planet. Changes that our descendants are going to have BIG problems dealing with. We’re having big enough problems now, in 2018, with storms getting stronger, ice melting steadily, droughts/heatwaves/wild fires, increasing civil unrest and breakdown. Meanwhile the amounts of fossil carbon being released are still increasing when we should be throwing “Manhattan Project” urgency at figuring out how to extract Gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere.

Sadly, Dr Newman is not a reliable source of peer-reviewed and confirmed information. She makes much of the problems if we don’t continue with business-as-usual re oil exploration and consumption, but, as usual, makes NO mention of the long term costs of business-as-usual. There is enough known resources of coal and oil to wreck the planet, anyone spending vast sums of money and taking extraordinary risks with the commons to find more is appallingly irresponsible.
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby hagfish » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:20 am

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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby par_annoyed » Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:45 am

Yes, I'm still a skeptic.

WHY -
What I STILL can't get past is the premise that a change in a single gas concentration from 0.025% to 0.04% has a significant outcome. It defies all common sense. If I WERE to believe it, then I would have to believe in a completely unstable atmosphere, subject to WILD variations from an INFINITESIMALLY small change.I just cannot get my head around that premise, logarithmic or not. Yes, I totally agree that the most heinous crime should be the statement "The science is settled". All we really have for most/much of science is "our best guess which seems to work" and if you are into quantum physics then you can add "mostly" or "more or less" at the end....

OTOH. I think there's plenty of anecdotal and believable evidence that the climate is indeed changing, BUT THAT IT HAS ALWAYS CHANGED, bouncing around up and down, the reasons for which we still don't truly understand. (I'm not sure about measurable and proven evidence, but it doesn't really matter in this context). There's a whole raft of possible causes. Personally I'm favourable to the idea that it's probably somehow linked to the Sun's variable output, but again it doesn't change all THAT much, so it's also tenuous at best. However without the Sun, we'd be just a little bit colder, it is after all the source of all our warmth. Sometimes a warm or cold period (e.g. Medieval warm period in Europe) is dismissed with 'a local effect due to', but I'm not convinced that's the right way to go. For me, all that Ocean (70% ?) represents an enormous heat sink.....so it could, for example, be showing now what happened 1000 years ago ....

ISSUES - I think the fact we (Mankind) are polluting and destroying the Earth and its biosphere at a truly astonishing rate is FAR more important, and it too may feed into some aspect of warming, I simply don't know. Meanwhile at every climate conference, the delegates fly around in their private jets and talk about politics, and come up with useless, and probably unachievable targets, but most importantly make sure that there are lots of TAX opportunities. Not that it's all about the money or anything. No of course not.

There is the theory that more CO2 and methane will actually "green up" the Earth, as plants need CO2 to live. A wetter climate will do the same. Seems reasonable to me, but I don't really know. But it has to be at least as valid a theory as some of the others wandering around.

Anyway, that's my honest and straightforward opinion, good or bad.
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby phill » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:59 am

ok couple of things we can do

first .. find out about the butterfly effect
visualise it conceptualise it understand it then put it away for further use

then consider you may not have to wade through friken millions of pages of scientific data brought out by both sides
but look at the climate data models .. they were rough / very rough at first but each year they are progressively better and better ... neither side argue against them ( ok a few of the way outs do but lets just stick with the broadly qualified ) they are starting to get very accurate in terms of what to expect and when ( as a side note most are now showing a lot worse than has been released .. but then again .. they always have )

order within order cannot work .. one glitch and it falls to bits
chaos within chaos cannot work .. there is no structure of permanence
order within chaos or chaos within order are the only stable ways .. but both can be hugely and rapidly effected by even minor inputs
add natures own chaos effects and things that seem impossible often happen

the current effort to fob off the effects of us being pigs because we have been more noticeable pigs in other ways doesnt achieve anything

its time for changing most of the ways the corporate and financial driven consumerist society does things .. for most ( most ) things it is already to late
Last edited by phill on Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby Perry » Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:01 pm

par_annoyed wrote:ISSUES - I think the fact we (humankind) are polluting and destroying the Earth and its biosphere at a truly astonishing rate is FAR more important

In my view, absolutely correct!

par_annoyed wrote:ISSUES - Meanwhile at every climate conference, the delegates fly around in their private jets and talk about politics, and come up with useless, and probably unachievable targets, but most importantly make sure that there are lots of TAX opportunities. Not that it's all about the money or anything. No of course not.

Again in my view, absolutely correct!

Sounds vaguely similar to roadside cash cameras and 'safety.' :twisted:
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby phill » Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:02 pm

Perry wrote:
par_annoyed wrote:ISSUES - Meanwhile at every climate conference, the delegates fly around in their private jets and talk about politics, and come up with useless, and probably unachievable targets, but most importantly make sure that there are lots of TAX opportunities. Not that it's all about the money or anything. No of course not.

Again in my view, absolutely correct!

Sounds vaguely similar to roadside cash cameras and 'safety.' :twisted:



ahh ok but it means nothing
the delegates are mostly your oneagenda adhern and suchlike politicians including their staff and advisers
but
they are not doing the grinding at the coal face
thats done by climatologists, programmers and a bevy of other scientists .. who sadly dont get much of the schmooze cake fest
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby JonL » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:41 pm

People with political agendas who continually put the cost to "the economy", over the cost to humanity, spruiking bullshit theories about CO2 to justify their "beliefs", not knowledge, make me mad. The cost to humanity is going to be horrific! Yes, climate change happens, but over large time scales that give nature a chance to adjust, not virtually overnight. The science IS settled about AGW, comparatively small changes in CO2,DO have large effects on planet temperature! Continually berating Climate Scientists as having financial interests in spruiking warming, or not taking into account, this or that, is belittling in the extreme and downright libellous of people who are seeing first hand, just how fast things are now starting to move - way faster than the excoriated models have been predicting.
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Re: More CO2 and methane won't hurt the planet? (1 Nov, 2018

Postby Perry » Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:11 pm

Having had some minor historical involvement as a funding bid referee with MoRST & FfRST, my perception is that science has been prostituted to politics. Not by the scientists, though!

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