Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

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Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:57 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2020/0131.shtml

So just how devastating for the world economy would it be if the coronavirus really did take hold?

Even if it simply sweeps through China, might the effects on the global economy be felt far and wide?

It would be interesting to compare the effects of this virus (if it became a pandemic) with the effects of the Spanish Flu.

Is the media "doing its thing" and trying its hardest to hype of the FUD for profit?

Have you taken any extra measures yet... just in case?
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby Perry » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:34 am

Bruce wrote:With luck and sound management, this whole thing will likely be over by the end of summer.

I wonder what sort of knee-jerk reaction will come from the W'gton woodenheads as they seize another chance to snatch away citizens' freedoms?
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby hagfish » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:57 am

Ebola and Zika seemed like simple media beat-ups - excuses for foreign powers to build aid/military bases - and a feeding-frenzy for drug companies. SARS and MERS were more worrying to me, but the regular 'flu' kills hundreds of us every year, and only 40% of bother getting vaccinated.

Coronavirus seems different. Granted, I don't need much of an excuse to rush out and buy 25Kg of rice and 2L of bleach, but - after a slow start - China is taking this VERY seriously. They have locked down several cities - 60 million people are 'under quarantine'. They cancelled 'Christmas', and now they are delaying the return to work by a fortnight. If cases carry on increasing at around 40% per day (as they have been), it will be 200K in a week, 3 million in a fortnight, 50 million in three weeks, a billion in a month, and basically everyone a few days after that. If it can't be contained, then we are very much 'at the beginning' of this.

Between this, Brexit, looming/inevitable social break-down in the USA, and February's meteor impact (because we've already had war, wildfire, locusts and plague this year so why not?) industrialised society could be in for a wobble in 2020.
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby cjet » Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:12 am

Hagfish made the point 1 billion.

Let’s make it 8 billion

18% death rate
And 1.3 billion dead

So 82% survive
And get on with the 580 million years of sex evolving multi cellular organisms

4 billion years for DNA RNA life.

So I am preparing to go into this head on. And Survive. And accumulate as much gold and silver and thorium I can by helping people with water supply, sanitation, food supplies, and all the deliveries of subsistence for living.

Yes the big issues is fear itself
Run from a city and it collapses taking everyone.
Stay and build a rural town is grows stronger minus 18%

Just think one In five mayors will be up for bi election.

Out of 10 councillors two will be offering up a bielection oppertunity.

So head into this pandemic.
Running from any city is defeat 100%
Standing firm is only 18% defeat. 82% willing. I like those odds
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:17 am

Coronavirus currently running at 3-6% mortality (variance due to unknown true levels of deaths from non-reporting), and a 1:3 infection rate so ... meh. Wash hands more frequently, avoid hand to face contact, no biggie.
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby phill » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:32 am

GSVNoFixedAbode wrote:Coronavirus currently running at 3-6% mortality (variance due to unknown true levels of deaths from non-reporting), and a 1:3 infection rate so ... meh. Wash hands more frequently, avoid hand to face contact, no biggie.


its still pretty early to state the effective total death rate from it ... its likely to be more that the 3-6% esp when the infection rate consumes the available medical supplies and then far outstrips the ability to replace them
but probably less than 20%
@ 3% its not going to have any damaging ongoing effects ( other than a short hysteria induced recession )
@20% it will have positive environmental benefits

some tit bits ( take them for what they are worth )
the infection started at a market ~30 ks from a chinese virus research centre .. thought to be involved in biological warfare research ( i heard a report that they were already blaming usa for the infection ( if its true then that to me is a red flag ... when govts put misinformation onto the streets so fast its for a reason ) )
the chinese govt have reacted faster and with more draconian laws than they did with the sars virus
the chinese reaction far exceeds any response to any infection i have ever heard of ( short of mob rule burnings )
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby phill » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:25 am

coro.jpg


the speed of the infection spread is pretty impressive
sort of says that infection transfers before symptoms show is a probable

has all the things you would want in a good bio wep
lethality is not needed .. its pretty easy to mop up the incapacitated
and avoids the problems you get if there is an accidental release on yourself
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:49 am

Was that speed of infection or change of reporting? Early infection reporting was 'limited' by the State.
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby phill » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:13 pm

no idea
but they may have gone open by the time this was presented
even that assumes they have gone open at all .. and that would include the death rate
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Crippled by coronavirus? (31 Jan, 2020)

Postby Muz » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:20 pm

Every time I see those maps showing countries that have the infection, I think of my favourite android game "Plague.Inc"

I found that the trick was to just keep under the radar. Infect as many countries as possible but slowly. Get the virus into England, Cape Town and all the other travel hubs. Once established, start ramping up mortality rate but keep deaths less than the new infection rate. Hardest country to infect was always Alaska.

NZ's declaration to not screen incoming tourists apart from a wee voluntary questionnaire during peak tourist season will give us no protection at all and I believe is criminal negligence.

The majority of Chinese tourists complete their visits to our country within a week - Queenstown, Milford, Rotorua, Auckland and Christchurch (West Coast glaciers if the weather is okay.) So maximum coverage of the country while infectious and probably not showing symptoms until they get back home. Exposure to 1000's of unsuspecting victims who will do their part in passing it on.

The least we can do is encourage every Chinese tourist to shake a politicians hand (or give them a big juicy kiss)before they depart NZ.
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