Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

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Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby aardvark_admin » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:20 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2020/0205.shtml

How can it be that the UK is now looking to become even greener than New Zealand?

Why, despite my constant rantings, are our politicians still so asleep at the wheel (at both a local and central government level)?

Are we really about to be caught with our trousers down when the EV transition arrives almost overnight?

Will our sole claim to fame be as the Cuba of the South Pacific... the place to go when you want to see a snapshot in automotive history as Kiwis continue to drive their gas-guzzling old ICE vehicles around, long after the rest of the developed world has gone electric?

But at least we'll have a shiny aluminium smelter that *everybody* subsidises through their taxes eh? :-/
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Elected (Non-Useful) Idiots

Postby Perry » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:04 am

I don't think you're alone, Bruce.

Pollies of all types have a great track record for ignoring sound and sagacious advice.

Was it yesterday that you mentioned the 10,000 affordable houses a year from the loony labour lot?

The advice given to him by his ministry officials was dismissed by Dhil Twitford as, just a scenario that I'm not going to assume will happen.

It happened as his advisers suggested: higher rents, fewer rentals, increased demand on social housing, etc. Plus many millions more going to moteliers for providing emergency housing.

$41M per quarter I think was the latest figure.

Labour’s ideological attack on landlords has carried on unabated. They extended the brightline capital gains tax on rental housing from two to five years and introduced new requirements for insulation, heating, and ventilation. More regulations will come into effect next year - including limiting the ability of property owners to serve notice on problem tenants.

By over-regulating rental housing and villainising landlords, the inevitable has happened: rents have increased and are continuing to rise. This is leading to a surge in homelessness and a significant escalation in the state house waiting list, with a record-breaking 14,000 families now waiting - well over double the 5,800 when Labour took office. In addition, 30,000 families are now in emergency housing, up from 6,000 two years ago.
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby Muz » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:47 am

I prefer to look on the bright side ....... in 15-20 years (if still alive) I will be able to pick up a cheap Aston Martin :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby Wetherman » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:55 am

Government officials can read this one for themselves. Your name is not anywhere to be seen in this article Bruce, so they might be allowed to believe it too.
https://thedriven.io/2019/04/12/new-zealand-tipped-to-reach-100-electric-vehicle-sales-by-2030/
I found this recently when trying to decide whether my next new (new-to-me) car should be a hybrid. Should I save dino-juice by lugging 600kg of batteries around? I decided not to, even though the chosen car will be worth essentially zero in 10 years' time. I figured that my $10k would depreciate at $1k per year and that's much cheaper than hiring a car every time I need one.
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby tonyr » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:16 pm

It is a common misconception that power to the smelter is subsidised or sold below cost. Look carefully at the annual reports for Meridian and other Hydro generators. It becomes very clear that Meridian's profit (and dividend) is higher per unit generated and sold. This would not be so if the power was sold below cost.

Another wee issue, the smelter uses about 15% of NZ's electricity. To switch the private vehicle fleet to EV only is estimated to require another 25% of electricity, there is no committed generation to add another 10% of generation in NZ, let alone another 35% to cover EV,s, allow to shut down the smelter, and replace coal fired generation.

The Rankine units at Huntly are the real elephants in the room. They are past their use by date and by modern standards are inefficient. But they generate some of the cheapest power in NZ and do a great job of providing on-tap marginal generation to cover meteorological variations. If we run short of water those two units are all that stands between lights on and lights off and there is plenty of fuel. Forget wind, it is expensive and needs parallel hydro to create stability.
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby Weasel » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:57 pm

I dont quite buy the shutdown Tiwai Point argument :-)

Manapouri Power Station has a generating capacity of 850 MW, and resource consents allow it to produce 800 MW, Tiwai Point consumes about 530 MW, the other 270 MW enters the national grid via Invercargill. Turn off Tiwai Point and you have a surplus 530 MW to send somewhere, now unless that 530 MW can be transmitted to the South Island end of the HVDC circuit you've got a problem. Even so how much will an extra 530 MW lower electricity costs? Probably not at because the experts in Wellington went and deregulated the market, the profit driven retailers will soak up any difference as quickly as they can stuff their pockets with all those spare electrons.

Rio Tinto's goal is to make money, they're not going to operate Tiwai at loss. I'm no economist, but $30m over a few years to keep an industry going that accounts for 10% of Southlands economy and some 3000 direct and indirect jobs probably has a net positive effect. One of the a governments functions is to redistribute wealth after all.
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Hung Comparitive[s]

Postby Perry » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:59 pm

tonyr wrote:It is a common misconception that power to the smelter is subsidised or sold below cost. Look carefully at the annual reports for Meridian and other Hydro generators. It becomes very clear that Meridian's profit (and dividend) is higher per unit generated and sold.

Oh? "Higher" than watt? :twisted:

tonyr wrote:This would not be so if the power was sold below cost.

Really?

Could there not be a cross-subsidy between below cost units sold to Rio Tinto and units well-above-costs sold to the other suckers attached to the national grid?
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby phill » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:34 pm

The long-run marginal costs per megawatt hour of different forms of electricity generation, including the capital investment needed, from geothermal to nuclear:Geothermal: About $70 a MWh the cheapest option but limited potential. Gas: $85 a MWh (including carbon cost) based on gas at $7 a gigajoule. Coal: $110 a MWh (including carbon costs) using lignite coals. Wind: $80 a MWh but limited potential at the best sites. Wind: $85 to $100 a MWh at second-tier sites. Hydro: $75 to $100 a MWh, but long lead times to develop. Nuclear: $140 to $160 a MWh expensive with technical issues in decommissioning.

Source: Stuff.co.nz
from
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/new-zeal ... eothermal/

and lets not forget wind


http://www.epoc.org.nz/papers/Securityo ... on2018.pdf
Appendix III: Proposed New Generation Facilities
Proposed Plant as at July 2018
on page 36 also interesting
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby Perry » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:53 pm

Weasel wrote:One of a government's function is to redistribute wealth, after all.

Really? I call bullshit. Where did that perverse socialist nostum spring from?

Just like tariff "re-balancing," the word "re-distribute" is a sophistry / oxy-moron / malfeasant lie.

What it means is forcibly take something from someone and give it to someone else. Typical bully tactics.

The correct word for that sort of thing is theft.

Government-sanctioned theft.


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Re: Fifteen years to ICE-zero (5 Feb, 2020)

Postby phill » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:14 pm

funny
i thought we had changed that to
tax the poor to enrich the greedy
by providing enough small holes to drive a tanker though
the myth of trickle down has long since lost the shine of its first mirror like clarity

the rich know how to control the power
but the poor know how to control the guillotine
Last edited by phill on Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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