Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

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Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:19 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2021/0813.shtml

Trust me, embracing the "carpe diem" attitude to life is incredibly liberating and uplifting.

The outcome of our battle against Covid 19 is still far from clear and it is beginning to look as if New Zealand has made some "sub-optimal" choices in respect to its vaccination program but to be honest, it doesn't worry me much at all.

I'm still loving every day above ground, despite the sure and certain knowledge that I (and everyone else) only has a fixed number of these left, regardless of the CV19 situation.

I have to wonder however, what our medium-term approach to CV19 will be.

Given the wonderful success of our isolationist response to date, why not just lift the drawbridge and remain an isolated, disease-free island for as long as it takes for the rest of the world to come up with the answer to the CV19 problem? What's to lose?
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby hagfish » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:47 am

aardvark_admin wrote:Ah, but what doesn't kill us only makes us stronger they say.

They do say that, but in practice, it's the reverse, "what doesn't kill the weak, only makes us weaker". Selective pressure doesn't 'pick winners' - it's not an onward-and-upward guiding hand. It quietly 'selects' the losers. If that happens to be 'everyone', well, species go extinct every day. It's a feature. All we can say for sure about the life-forms around today is that they didn't die out, yet.

It's fun to think that a handful of people can occupy these lush, empty islands inviolate, indefinitely, but if history has taught us anything...

We might as well enjoy it while it lasts.
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:05 am

What doesn't kill us ... mutates to have another go soon after!

Meanwhile, the 42% vaccine effectiveness and recommendation to go 5-8 weeks instead of 3 for a 95% protection compared to 85% are both recent studies, with the 42% result yet to be peer-reviewed. I think it's a bit harsh to expect such a large logistical programme to spin on a dime and change all the protocols after months of planning.

Yesterday's announcement of the change from 3 weeks to 8 weeks delay for the second jab is to both get that 85 to 95% probably protection, AND to get greater cover of the population having at least 1 of the 2 jabs given the Delta threat. Just that change is a massive re-gearing of the nationwide rollout and DOES show we've got a group watching and adjusting as the new scientific results come in. Remember, it took an age for the Govt to accept the data on masks, but once the compelling evidence was accepted the message did change.

Many people are upset at the pace of the vaccine rollout. Remember all this was planned under different conditions: no Delta, border protections reasonably robust, and internally we were a LOT better off than many countries ravaged by Covid so we were always well down in the queue to receive the shipments of vaccine. So the programme is being changed now to get wider coverage sooner, at least for the first jab, while we wait for more stock to arrive.

Just stand back for a minute and look at what's been done in the Country, how it has been done, and the ongoing modifications. Now look at our overall health, especially compared to most of the rest of the world. Is it perfect? Nope. Can we rest on our laurels? Nope. But I'm thankful of the efforts and results to date!
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:17 am

GSVNoFixedAbode wrote:Meanwhile, the 42% vaccine effectiveness and recommendation to go 5-8 weeks instead of 3 for a 95% protection compared to 85% are both recent studies

No, the increased effectiveness of the longer inter-dose interval has been known for quite some time -- that's why the UK's vaccination campaign had that parameter almost right from the get-go and they're now a long-way through their program.

I just hope they'll offer us "early adopters" a booster within the next 3 months as we get ready to open the borders (according to Ms Adern).

Just stand back for a minute and look at what's been done in the Country, how it has been done, and the ongoing modifications. Now look at our overall health, especially compared to most of the rest of the world. Is it perfect? Nope. Can we rest on our laurels? Nope. But I'm thankful of the efforts and results to date!

Yep but we're just fortunate that gram of luck is worth a kilo of good planning.

We've dodged several bullets by way of nothing more than good luck. The travel-bubble with Australia was always doomed to failure and represented a totally unjustified increase in risk, given our lack of vaccination. However, the mighty dollar trumped caution and commonsense -- something which I am sure will happen again because government has very clearly proven where its priorities lie.

Remember, it will take only one CV19-delta super-spreader to get loose in the community for us to be thrust back into L4 lockdown, with the enormous effects that will have on life and the economy. We (New Zealand) have an obligation to our people and the world, not to allow ourselves to become a breeding ground for CV19 mutations due to our low vaccination levels and efficacy combined with crazy exceptions to our border strategies.
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby paulw » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:24 am

Vaccinate everyone , open the borders and see what happens. Soon it will be just another flu with the annual Covid shot. Hell 6 to 8 people over the past month have died of RSV but no calls for lockdowns etc manly because it hasn't got the name Covid in it. We may lose a couple of hundred people but we used to lose abot 500 a year with the normal flu.
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:29 am

paulw wrote:Vaccinate everyone , open the borders and see what happens. Soon it will be just another flu with the annual Covid shot. Hell 6 to 8 people over the past month have died of RSV but no calls for lockdowns etc manly because it hasn't got the name Covid in it. We may lose a couple of hundred people but we used to lose abot 500 a year with the normal flu.

To be honest, that really is our only option... well the only option that will gather widespread support.

I have to admit however, I have kind of enjoyed our "elite" status over the past 18 months or so and the freedoms it has given us.

The crazy thing is that our economy has boomed as a result of this isolationist strategy, unemployment is low and aside from a few self-inflicted shortages (electricity, construction timber, etc), as a nation and an economy, we're doing better than we have done for quite some time.

Of course we'll open the borders soon, immigration will boom, rich people will spend their $10m to get in the door and buy up property/houses. The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer and our housing crisis will explode as a result of the increased pressure on existing housing stock and the lack of new builds (remember the timber shortage).

Hey ho... when the rain stops I'll just go flying :-)
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:36 am

This video is really worth 12 minutes of your time and paints a sober image of what lies ahead, even if we reach very high levels of vaccination and then open our borders:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uezHgoEVI5Q
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby Malcolm » Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:55 am

Where are you seeing Pfizer has only 42% efficacy against Delta? Most studies I have seen indicate Pfizer is the most effective at protecting against Delta. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... ta-variant
Says it is in the low 90s. With only one dose it is down in the 40s. Which is about the same for any of the two dose vaccines.
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby phill » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:44 am

there is a lot of info on the net re delta variants and vaccs

i ended up at NEJM ( new england journal of medicine ) as being fairly reliable ( citing ref from cdc )
synopsis ... pfzer biontech seems favourable in comparison to any others

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... riant.html

https://www.nytimes.com/article/covid-b ... riant.html
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Are we losing the battle with CV19? (13 Aug, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:13 pm

Malcolm wrote:Where are you seeing Pfizer has only 42% efficacy against Delta? Most studies I have seen indicate Pfizer is the most effective at protecting against Delta. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... ta-variant
Says it is in the low 90s. With only one dose it is down in the 40s. Which is about the same for any of the two dose vaccines.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/mayo-cl ... fizer.html
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