Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

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Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby aardvark_admin » Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:04 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2021/1115.shtml

There are some worrying similarities between the valuation of new EV companies and the vauation of internet companies during the dot-com boom of late last century.

Should we be concerned that these companies are massively over-valued?

How do they justify such valuations given their profits (if any)?

Is now the time to buy an EV, given that the earliest EVs will likely become collectors' items in future and perhaps appreciate significantly in value in coming decades? Is it also a good time because there is no road-tax (yet) and a healthy taxpayer subsidy for the purchase?

Or will it be a better idea to wait until the next battery technology become commercially available and brings with it massive improvements in battery performance and perhaps lower costs?
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Re: Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:35 am

I was watching a couple of YT videos of the Rivian a month or so ago when a few reviewers put the Ute through its paces, at a time when the "hands off my Ute!" protest was in full swing. I have to admit being rather impressed with it as a serious contender to replace the standard farm or worker Ute.
When we replaced our 2 vehicles 5 years ago we knew they'd be the last ICE vehicles we'd buy, with the intent to hold on to them for 10 years on the expectation it'd be that long before EVs were at an economic price point. Still another 5 years to go, although if Suzuki came out with an EV version of the current Jimny I'd be in like a shot!
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Re: Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby hagfish » Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:56 am

The Rivian utes performed well in Ewan McGregor and Charlie Boorman's latest 'Long Way' trip. I don't know if they performed '$100 billion-well'. The US government issued more than US$3 trillion last year, so I suppose it all has to end up somewhere. Battery-tech seems like the least of Rivian's problems, tho - it's the little semiconductors like USB ports that could trip them up.

I still have high hopes for graphene - or maybe a system that charges/discharges more like a (super)capacitor. It would be nice if they could be less explodey than lithium batteries (or petrol (or hydrogen)). Cheap, efficient, high-current storage with a long service life is the missing piece of the 'renewables' puzzle.
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Re: Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby Kiwiiano » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:26 pm

hagfish wrote:I still have high hopes for graphene - or maybe a system that charges/discharges more like a (super)capacitor. It would be nice if they could be less explodey than lithium batteries (or petrol (or hydrogen)). Cheap, efficient, high-current storage with a long service life is the missing piece of the 'renewables' puzzle.


Some of the currently top end EVs are offering ranges as good or better than ICE petrol tanks and at the rate improvements in battery/energy storage technologies are announced it's not the problem it once was. It would help if effing stupid Governments would stop subsidising fossil fuel companies and divert the gazillions to implementing the many alternatives. We're running out of time.
The problem is that far too many of the decision makers don't really care, they'll be pushing up the daisies by the time the doggy-do really hits the fan. Although the last year or so's weather suggests it is happening already....
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Re: Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby phill » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:42 pm

hmmm
just look at the house insurance premiums
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Do we have an EV bubble? (15 Nov, 2021)

Postby Malcolm » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:24 am

Kiwiiano wrote:
hagfish wrote:I still have high hopes for graphene - or maybe a system that charges/discharges more like a (super)capacitor. It would be nice if they could be less explodey than lithium batteries (or petrol (or hydrogen)). Cheap, efficient, high-current storage with a long service life is the missing piece of the 'renewables' puzzle.


Some of the currently top end EVs are offering ranges as good or better than ICE petrol tanks and at the rate improvements in battery/energy storage technologies are announced it's not the problem it once was. It would help if effing stupid Governments would stop subsidising fossil fuel companies and divert the gazillions to implementing the many alternatives. We're running out of time.
The problem is that far too many of the decision makers don't really care, they'll be pushing up the daisies by the time the doggy-do really hits the fan. Although the last year or so's weather suggests it is happening already....


In this matter, Last Week Tonight did a piece on the electrical grid int he US and the difference in red tape for running an HV transmission line vs an oil pipeline is massive. Essentially to run a new oil pipeline you just need approval from two authorities (one federal level, one state level). Where as for the transmission lines you need approval from a bunch of different groups from the federal government, right down to the each of individual states and counties you pass through, many of which require permission from other groups as well, e.g any residents who may be near the lines etc. Each one will have a different set of criteria against which to judge any proposal.
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