Can we trust the numbers? (21 Jun, 2022)

[aardvark_admin]

What will be the really important numbers when it comes to ascertaining the environmental credentials of vehicles in the future and how can we trust manufacturers to be honest?

Will it be: total carbon cost of manufacture, KW/100Km, total carbon cost of ownership or something else?

Also, given how manufacturers clearly like to play free and loose with the facts, how can we trust what we're being told -- after all, that solar-EV manufacturer certainly appears to push the limits of credibility in its sales material.

How important will it be for us to de-prioritise the look and style of a vehicle in the future? Ought we not be trapped into an endless cycle of upgrading every x-years to the latest styling just to keep up with the neighbours?

Should modular construction with incremental upgradeability and maintainability become key purchasing priorities?

You tell me what you think should become the major factors associated with ensuring we can still (environmentally) afford the luxury of personal transport as we move into the future.

[hagfish]

EVs aren't supposed to 'save the planet'. They're a last-gasp effort to save the car industry. Private cars were great, but - like a lot of things - we had to leave them in the 20th century.

[tonyr]

Sure, an EV produces less CO2 per Km driven than does an ICE, even when the former is powered by electricity derived from coal-fired generation plants.

Nope. Not even close. Currently our marginal electricity comes from the old Rankine units at Huntly. So every new demand on the grid means more coal burnt. The Rankine units are about 30% efficient. They could be made more efficient but a a cost, no one wants to invest in those units. Add in grid and conversion losses (about 20%) and we have more carbon burnt than a reasonable modern ICE vehicle. So each additional EV means more carbon used. Even if we somehow wean ourselves from coal, there is still a large chunk of gas used to produce electricity. That still means more carbon used to generate EV energy than a modern hybrid.

It is frustrating that there is no real commitment given to wean us off carbon based electricity generation. The current wind generation, and that proposed only moves us a little in terms of installed capacity.

And shutting down the smelter is nowhere near enough to get us off carbon for electricity generation.

Either we need to bite the bullet and put in another Upper Waitaki scheme (there are 2 or 3 opportunities) or go small packaged nuclear.

[phill]

the basic problem with ev's isn't being addressed with the popular designs
there are a few reasonable designs around but our need to wrap ourselves in a mobile ego prevents many from buying them
whats the real problem
simple
weight
weight = size and bullshit addons
it's a replacement for a horse
its not a mini house / home / toolshed / ego
we can change the generation problems a lot faster than we can change the national fleet

[Kiwiiano]

You nailed Phill
This is a genuine solar powered car: https://aptera.us
True, it ain't for everyone, it can't tow a boat or take the whole whanau camping & it's useless for tradies, but it could probably handle 90% of most journeys.

My short answer to the above question is NO! We can't trust the numbers. There's too much knavery, bullshit, too many fish-hooks. I look around the world at the record floods, heat waves, storms, forest fires, melting ice, warming seas ad nauseam ....and they are the consequences of the fossil carbon released years, decades, centuries ago, who knows what the stuff pouring out of exhaust pipes & flues now will do, let along what those shiploads of SUV's down at the docks today will produce. I despair for my grandsons. (Hell, I'm not even sure about my future!)

[Fast Eddie]

Sure, an EV produces less CO2 per Km driven than does an ICE, even when the former is powered by electricity derived from coal-fired generation plants.

Nope. Not even close.

Yes it does, Bruce is correct.

Huntly Coal emits 974 kg of CO2 per MWh generated, or 0.974 kg per kWh generated.
An Nissan Leaf consumes approximately 15 kWh per 100 km. If charged entirely form Huntly Coal, that's 14.6 kg of CO2 per 100 km.

A typical ICE vehicle using petrol, which releases approximately 2.4 kg CO2 per litre of fuel, consuming 8 litres per 100 km, emit approximately 19 kg CO2 per 100 km.

So an EV charged solely from Huntly Coal would still emit less than a standard ICE.

[tonyr]

You have been very selective in your figures. First, a modern ICE vehicle with similar characteristics to the Leaf will use 4-6 litres per 100 Km. You also have excluded the transmission and conversion losses for the electricity. Think at least 20%.

[phill]

This is a genuine solar powered car: https://aptera.us
True, it ain't for everyone, it can't tow a boat or take the whole whanau camping & it's useless for tradies, but it could probably handle 90% of most journeys.)

this is the best i have seen
this is what we should have been making here already
this is what i want
with nz's ( yes even aucklands ) low rate of high rise living
most who own a car can charge it enough when parked at home, work or shops to never have to even plug it in to charge it for what they normally need

[Fast Eddie]

You have been very selective in your figures. First, a modern ICE vehicle with similar characteristics to the Leaf will use 4-6 litres per 100 Km. You also have excluded the transmission and conversion losses for the electricity. Think at least 20%.

The figures you have provided (4-6 l per 100 km) are best cases scenarios - they are not "real world". Unless you're driving on smooth, flat ground, no wind, and doing 70 km/h in fifth gear, you're not going to get an average anywhere 4-6 l per 100 km. Mixed mode (some highway, some city driving, gentle slopes, etc, is much closer to 8 litres. Maybe 7 depending on the car. I have a Mazda 2 (2015) which advertises a 5.1 l per 100 km. I drive very economically, and it's getting 7.9 real world driving (a few short distances with the odd longer distance, and of course some hills).

Also, look here for the Leaf figures: https://www.greenncap.com/wp-content/up ... asheet.pdf Those are actual lab tests, not what the motor says on its label. What I mean by that is, it takes everything into account. It's what the actual drain on the battery is; there's nothing further to deduct.