The end of the world as we know it (29 Nov, 2019)

[aardvark_admin]

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2019/1129.shtml

How is it that a computer system developed nearly half a century ago appears to be smarter than the collective intelligence of mankind?

Since the writing has been so clearly on the wall for so very long, why is it that we've done nothing (effective) to mitigate the issues that were predicted and we now face?

Was this computer's prediction spookily accurate?

Are we about to see the destruction of modern civilization by way of environmental changes that were clear to even the most primative of computers some half a century ago?

[Necrotic Kingdom]

Half a century isn't that impressive. Benjamin Franklin wrote “Cleared land absorbs more heat and melts snow quicker” in 1763!
Todays dilbert cartoon seems appropriate.

[hagfish]

I tend to focus on 'the now' - the short term. Part of me is aware of my gradual/looming decrepitude and death. Part of me is acutely conscious of how the wheels are falling off the west's 30-year experiment with neo-liberalism. There was an interesting article in the Guardian a few years ago, about how social systems can seem permanent and inevitable.. until they disappear.

Climate change, ocean acidification, resource depletion - these aren't even the biggest problems we face, but my options are: 'chain myself to a bulldozer' (or whatever - direct action); paralysis; or keep my head down and carry on for another day. These problems won't be fixed by 'reasonable people'. Maybe 100 years ago, 'greenhouse' climate change was mooted as a possibility; maybe 50 years ago we could extrapolate the models using computers. Today we just have to look at the sunsets to know the world is on fire.

[Malcolm]

The simple reason is the people with money and influence are kept in money and power by the status quo. Compare the carbon situation with CFCs.
CFCs were found to be damaging the ozone layer, an agreement was reached and CFCs (along with other chemicals) were phased out. The reason being there was a substitute available that the manufacturers were ready and willing to switch to with minimal disruption. Since then the chlorine in the upper atmosphere has reduced and the ozone layer is recovering. It should also be noted that at the time of the Montreal Protocol the exact mechanism for how chlorine was damaging the ozone layer was not fully understood so the science behind it was no where near settled. Certainly not to the degree that we knew carbon warmed the atmosphere even back then.

[Perry]

Hell, if a computer that probably had less CPU power than your smartphone could figure it out, why on earth have we steadfastly refused to take any effective steps to mitigate the problem for so very long?

Wouldn't we / you want to know the programmed parameters?

[Necrotic Kingdom]

I'm curious Perry. Given that the original hockey stick graph has been vindicated many times by many different groups, why do you refer to it as *infamous* and why are you thinking of it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

[Perry]

As I recall, it wasn't the graph line that was the problem, it was the way it was [pictorially] framed.

As for "the science," I do wonder - especially with certain interests involved the way they are.

[phill]

so you base your scientific conclusions on .. a cartoon ??

false at that
for what its worth the pro oil and coal forces spent hugely more than the scientific forces
but hey .. never let the facts get in the way of an informational cartoon

[Perry]

My conclusions? Where?

Scientific forces spent what? How? When? Where'd said forces get the money?

I didn't like it then and I don't now.

But a 'public good' science fund (run by a gummint agency) wastes scientists' time on funding bids. Time that would be better spent elsewhere.

The big down-side has been the prostitution of science.

MoRST & FoRST. Twins from hell.

[phill]

bit jumpy
but have we now changed to
the government funded it ( bs but carry on ) so it must be wrong
well ok i can agree that in general thats a good case
but in this case its not

its happening .. get over it