No predictions. Dangerous game, that.
A comment, however . . .
Bruce wrote:It started slowly, with tariffs being applied to the importation of a wide range of "Made in China" products, especially tech products. Clearly, one of the designed effects was to protect domestic industries from competition.
Valid competition? Or unfair competition?
In such matters, it seems that condemnatory expressions rush to the fore. Fortress this, Command economy, Protectionism, etc.
No one seems capable of examining certain realities. China and NZ's 'Free Trade' is a good example.
How is a NZ producer of widgets (ADSB alarm?) to compete when the Chinese Labour market does not have:
ACC cover
4 weeks annual leave
2 weeks Statutory holidays leave
40 hour week
Generous social welfare
Taxpayer-subsidised hospital care
Taxpayer-subsidised doctors' visits for children
Minimum wage laws
Health & Safety laws
Factories and Workplace construction integrity & sanitary standards laws
Etc.
There can be no free trade between countries where the working standards are extremely disparate.
Tariffs can be used to regulate the imbalance, but only in a certain way.