Where to now for Intel? (26 Nov, 2020)

[aardvark_admin]

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2020/1126.shtml

Can Intel turn their ship around or have they well and truly crested -- destined now for nothing but decline and acquisition?

How could they have got it so wrong?

Why was AMD able to eclipse Intel's lead so quickly and authoritatively in such a short period of time?

When you build/buy your next computer, will you go for Intel or AMD for the processor -- and why?

[Malcolm]

AMD have had the desktop CPU performance crown before. They were the first to break the 1GHz barrier and the first consumer 64-bit chip, and the first consumer multi-core. Back in the early-mid 2000s AMD desktop were the choice for the enthusiast market. But Intel is huge, the desktop CPU market is only a small fraction of their business. Also Intel still ships the most to the OEMs which is where most people buy their computers. Also given Intel's size they can take a few different paths not needing them all to lead to fruition. A prime example was during the Pentium 4 era Intel still had a small team working on the old Pentium 3 architecture. When it seemed that Netburst had hit the limits on how far they could push it they were able to change to the Core architecture which was a result of the research done by that team. Then they left AMD behind as AMD went in to what are known as the 'Construction Cores' (Buldozer, Excavator, etc) which it turned out was a poor design choice. This hobbled AMD severely for about 10 years until the Zen architecture came out and saved them. Unlike Intel they don't have the size to maintain different research groups looking in different things, just in case something pans out.

[hagfish]

Apple's latest M1-based 'Macbook Air' is a general-purpose machine aimed at regular consumers who want a nice laptop. It costs about $2K. Its performance is on par with a fully-dressed Intel-based Macbook Pro, that costs about three times as much, needs four times as much RAM, and requires a 100-watt charger brick. The Air doesn't even have a fan. Apple will be releasing more powerful versions of its M1 SoC over the next couple of years, for its iMac, iMac Pro, and bigger Macbook Pro ranges. They're eyeing up 5nm, too. It's hard to feel sorry for Intel, tho.

[greven]

The fanless macbook will be perfect for hairdressers. Have you ever opened up a hairdresser's laptop?