Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

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Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby aardvark_admin » Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:04 am

This column is archived at: https://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2019/1011.shtml

Isn't it tragic that we still have people who consider winning lotto to be their A-plan for wealth and happiness?

Are we doing enough to ensure that everyone has the chance to improve their own circumstances without the need to win a multi-million dollar lottery prize?

Have you bought or will you be buying a ticket in this weekend's $32 million jackpot?

What would YOU do with the money if you won?

Is $10 for a few days of dreaming about winning a good value deal?

In the hands of those who understand the odds (and therefore don't expect to win and aren't reliant on a win), are big jackpots like this actually a positive thing for mental health... allowing us to escape the day-to-day blandness of our lives with dreams of "what might be"?

Or does the cost of gambling addiction outweigh the positives?
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby Necrotic Kingdom » Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:51 am

aardvark_admin wrote:In the hands of those who understand the odds (and therefore don't expect to win and aren't reliant on a win), are big jackpots like this actually a positive thing for mental health... allowing us to escape the day-to-day blandness of our lives with dreams of "what might be"?
Possibly, I think everybody needs a little treat to look forward to. Personally its not my vice, mine are coffee and buying books. But me old mum buys a ticket every week. At least lotto doesn't damage your lungs, cause you to crash your vehicle, or increase your cholesterol.
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby phill » Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:02 am

its a cheap dream .. with a dab of possibility
chances in reality are zero ( to 4 sig figs )

farm in an area over 300 mtrs above sea level ( mid upper north island )
with a spring or running water onhand
1/2 dairy the rest in mixed < 1/4 goats / sheep < 1/4 market produce
the rest orchards and pigs
then change that to 25% native bush and 30 mtr riparian strips

runway yes .. but thats also the straight for the cart track and rally cross
( ,,,,,,,, ....... A E I O U use em sparingly theres probably not enough )

i might live and eat in a sewer .. but hey look how many of these shiny things i have got
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby GSVNoFixedAbode » Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:17 am

Yup, I pay the 'Stupid Tax' every so often but with the way it's rigged with Powerball, the jackpot needs to be over $10M before I drop my $12. The odds are extremely low, but there is a chance of winning. As you say, that $ spent is the entertainment value of dreaming of winning all that money.

- Lifestyle block in Central Otago for natives and nut trees,
- sort a couple of houses out for the kids,
- a new Jimny (shiny toy!),
- and a good proportion to an organisation like Kiva to let someone else manage distributing all that other money that I don't need
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby Perry » Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:26 am

Bruce wrote:Despite these long odds, I often see people dressed in obviously worn-out clothes with scruffy, barefooted kids in tow, plonking down big wads of $20 notes at the Lotto counter in the vain hope of solving all their financial woes.

And it would soon be gone, too, afterwards. Not long after all the rellies arrive.

Bruce wrote:Wouldn't it be great if we (as a society) could offer these people more than just Lotto? Wouldn't it be amazing if we could show them that the best way to improve their lot is not to bet against astronomical odds, but to invest in their own future by way of upskilling themselves or some other strategy.

Those things are already there and not really that hard to find. If one is motivated to look, of course.

You have heard of the old axiom of casting pearls before swine, haven't you?
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby Muz » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:14 pm

Lucky that the families in rags haven't discovered the lotto webpage. I was having a wee rummage around it last week and was shocked to see this page https://mylotto.co.nz/instant-kiwi

Can't afford a lotto ticket? No probs ... got $5? Great we've got the game for you. Oh dear, only got $3 left .... no problem! Luck not so good then? How about a game for $1? Have a wee play on our free examples and see how easy it is.
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby Kiwiiano » Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:17 pm

Lotto is God’s punishment on folk who don’t understand statistics.

I think it would be a lot better for the community if they provided 64 people with $500k. $32M is a bloody stupid amount of money. There’s a strong possibility that whoever wins it will ultimately be worse off.
~ Kiwiiano
“I'm right 98% of the time, so who gives a damn about the other 3%?"
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Re: Logic versus hope (11 Oct, 2019)

Postby Malcolm » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:16 am

Kiwiiano wrote:Lotto is God’s punishment on folk who don’t understand statistics.

I think it would be a lot better for the community if they provided 64 people with $500k. $32M is a bloody stupid amount of money. There’s a strong possibility that whoever wins it will ultimately be worse off.


There was a webpage which kept track of big lottery winners. Most were in a terrible state just a few years after the big win. Most spent up large only to discover that the big house and fleet of flash cars came with a hefty ongoing insurance and rates bill attached. The few instances they had of success were people who kept their heads down and invested most and after an initial splash never touched the principle. Of course since it seems to be so dangerous it is only fitting I will take on the burden so you don't have to.

I bought a ticket for the weekend's big draw and came away with a winner. Yay bonus ticket (Ok that is technically just a delayed loss).
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